Johny Hendricks and Kelvin Gastelum were both staring down the worst possible question that can be raised about an athlete: "How good could they have been?"
Hendricks became an overnight sensation when he floored longtime contender Jon Fitch in 2011 and rode that momentum into a title fight with Georges St-Pierre in 2013. While Hendricks came a hair shy of winning the fight, St-Pierre's retirement reopened the door for Hendricks as a contender, and he made the most of the opportunity by defeating Robbie Lawler to take the vacant title at UFC 171.
The good times ended there for Hendricks. A torn bicep led to a lengthy layoff and a rematch with Lawler led to the title changing hands. For reasons that remain vague, the immediate rubber match never happened, and Hendricks was made to work for his redemption. Unfortunately, a win over Matt Brown was followed with an aborted match with Tyron Woodley due to a botched weight cut.
The scrapped fight sent UFC executives into hysterics and sent Hendricks to the back of the line. That set him up for a fight with the fast-rising Stephen Thompson, which ended in a knockout loss.
Gastelum hasn't reached the heights Hendricks has, but his career has been defined by weight-related speed bumps. After winning The Ultimate Fighter season 17 with a shocking upset over Uriah Hall, he dropped to welterweight but consistently struggled to come in at the 170-pound weight limit. Wins over tough competition like Rick Story and Jake Ellenberger were diminished by consistent struggles at the scale and recent losses to Tyron Woodley and Neil Magny have left his place in the division, and his top prospect status, unclear.
That made this a must-win for both men coming in.
The first round was largely a striking contest, where Gastelum showed very solid combination work, peppering Hendricks with punches and demonstrating improved cage control. Hendricks was visibly wounded on several occasions and tried to work his wrestling but couldn't tie up Gastelum for any length of time.
Hendricks was much more active in the second, pressing the action and working the clinch, but Gastelum continued winning exchanges at range. While he made good adjustments and managed to eat up minutes with work along the cage, Gastelum's striking remained crisper and more effective.
Likely working from a deficit on the scorecards, Hendricks pressed forward in the early goings of the third. While he was effective for a time, he didn't seem to have the endurance to maintain a solid pace. In the waning seconds, Hendricks tried working for takedowns, but again couldn't quite come through.
Those five round wars have permanent impacts on the athletes. Those who weather them are outliers. #UFC200
— Jonathan Snowden (@JESnowden) July 10, 2016
The fight reached the judges with the winner fairly clear, and the scorecards read what most expected. Gastelum was the winner by unanimous decision.
Though Gastelum's weight issues have consistently diminished his achievements, the TUF 17 winner's pure talent has never been in doubt. Though a title shot may not come any time soon, the improvements Gastelum showed at UFC 200 indicate he has become the top-notch talent many pegged him to be.
Hendricks' future, however, is completely uncertain. Despite his recent struggles, Hendricks was still regarded by many as an elite welterweight and was expected to remain in the title picture for years to come.
While there is a chance this performance is an anomaly, brought about by another ugly weight cut entering this fight, it's impossible to ignore the statistics surrounding Hendricks. He is now 2-4 in his last six and logged 108 hard minutes in the cage during that stretch. He is on the bad side of 30 years old and has been actively competing in combat sports for nearly 15 years now. There is a massive amount of wear and tear on his body and there is a strong chance he is set for a sharp physical decline from here.
Though Hendricks could potentially move up to 185 pounds and find new life, his days as a top welterweight are officially done.
