In-depth main-card breakdown: 'UFC Fight Night 116: Rockhold vs. Branch'

MMAjunkie Radio cohost and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom provides an in-depth breakdown of all of UFC Fight Night 116’s main-card bouts.

UFC Fight Night 116 takes place at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh. The main card airs on FS1 following an early prelim on UFC Fight Pass.

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Luke Rockhold (15-3 MMA, 5-2 UFC)

Luke Rockhold.

Staple info:

• Height: 6’3? Age: 32 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 77?
• Last fight: Knockout loss to Michael Bisping (June 4, 2016)
• Camp: Combat Club (Florida)
• Stance/striking style: Southpaw / Kickboxing
• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC middleweight champion
+ Strikeforce middleweight title
+ Black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu
+ 5 KO victories
+ 8 submission wins
+ 10 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Good distance management
+ Accurate check hook
+ Solid kicking variety
^ Dangerous liver kicks
+ Strong inside of the clinch
+ Underrated wrestling ability
+ Works well from front-headlock
+ Superb transitional grappler
^ Floats, rides, advances to back
+ Effective ground striker
^ Devestating elbows
+/-1 fight in 15 months

David Branch (21-3 MMA, 3-2 UFC)

David Branch.

Staple info:

• Height: 6’1? Age: 35 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 81?
• Last fight: Decision win over Krzysztof Jotko (May 13, 2017)
• Camp: Renzo Gracie Academy (New York)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox / Boxing
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ WSOF middleweight title
+ Black belt Brazilian jiu-jitsu
+ 5 KO victory
+ 7 submission wins
+ 5 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Good footwork
^ Sticks and moves well
+ Solid boxing technique
^ Accurate left hand
+ Excellent kick counters
+ underrated takedown ability
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Superb transitional grappler
^ Intelligent defense and fundamentals
+ Works well from front-headlock
^ Slick chokes and transitions
+/-2-1 against UFC southpaws

Summary:

The main event for Pittsburgh features a matchup of top middleweight talents when Luke Rockhold and David Branch do battle.

Returning for the first time in 15 months, we have not seen Rockhold since he lost his middleweight title to Michael Bisping last summer. Since then, the former champ has retooled his approach as he looks to make another run toward the top.

Seeking to stomp out that narrative is Branch, a former UFC middleweight contender who has come back with a vengeance since his multi-divisional run with WSOF. Currently No. 7 in the latest USA TODAY Sports/MMAjunkie MMA middleweight rankings, Branch could crack more than just the top five should he score the upset.

Starting off standing, we have a matchup between a dynamic southpaw striker and slick, stick-and-move stylist. Whether we are talking about Rockhold’s liver kick, counter cross or check-hook he keeps at the ready, he packs all the weapons that southpaws arguably should have.

Using every inch of his long frame, Rockhold is typically the one dictating the striking range in his fights. Prodding with jabs and moving well behind powerful kicks, Rockhold will chip away at his opposition until creating openings for his opportunism to shine.

However, it is worth noting that Rockhold has moved shop (or at least added to it) since his last time out. Now, spending a majority of his training camp working with Henri Hooft in South Florida, we could very well see considerable changes to his game. And given the Dutch style pressure-fighting that Hooft offers, I suspect those changes will be positive additions to Branch’s game.

Nevertheless, Rockhold still has a deceptively dangerous task ahead that he will need to take seriously.

Branch’s resume says Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, but the Brooklyn native has been boxing for some time. Staying light, yet loaded, on the feet, Branch does a good job of sticking and moving in and out of boxing range, particularly as the fight goes on.

When feeling in stride, Branch will begin to pick up his volume and amplify what is already an accurate left hand. In fact, I believe that Branch’s left hook may be the punch worth watching for.

As we saw in Rockhold’s last fight, his propensity to slip heavily to his left gets him out of the way from right hands nicely, but it also creates a hard counter balance that is the resetting of his head position, as this motion feeds directly into oncoming left hooks.

Should Branch create similar angles or reactions, he could also come up big, or at the very least, create doubt in the returning champion’s psyche. Still, this is all easier said than done, as Branch’s boxing stance and style may present targets of their own for Rockhold’s low-to-high kicking attacks.

With each man having paths to victory over the other standing, this matchup could come down to the action generated from the clinch. Both fighters are strong defensively and offensively inside of this space, but given their history, I suspect Branch may be the one looking for takedowns –– especially if the rounds are close.

The problem – in my opinion – with forecasting takedowns in either direction, is that they are both killers from the front-headlock position. Each fighter favors floating to the back, but neither has an issue locking up submissions from here, using their legs or arms just the same.

Traditional takedown entries aside, there are plenty of other ways for this fight to hit the floor. And since it is hard to see one man submitting the other soberly, the obvious answer is that the fighter in top position will have the edge in ground stanzas.

Despite Branch typically being the guy who is bucking for top position in his fights, I am not sure his offensive wrestling will outweigh Rockhold’s counter wrestling in the grand scale of things.

Fully utilizing his long, athletic frame, Rockhold demonstrates a solid sense of hips, levers and how to use them in his favor. Floating smoothly on top while displaying the limb dexterity of a featherweight, Rockhold starts to resemble a giant squid engulfing a ship by the time he hits the mount position.

Though Branch has the defense and overall skills to contend with his fellow black belt, I have a sneaky suspicion things could get ugly for him should he get caught in autopilot.

According to the betting lines, Rockhold is favored at least four-to-one to beat Branch. Regardless of my pick, I am not so sure I sign off on the margin above, as I see Branch having a much better chance to win than the odds indicate.

Even on his worst nights, Branch can turn long stretches of into deceptively competitive affairs. Coupled with Rockhold’s return from a long layoff and inherently opportunistic style –– and we may end up with a much closer fight than many are projecting. Still, the pick is Rockhold to dictate striking range, explore with pressure and possibly spark a finish near the fence off of a corralling head kick.

Official pick: Rockhold inside the distance

Official outcome: To be determined