In-depth main-card breakdown: 'UFC 215: Johnson vs. Borg'

MMAjunkie Radio cohost and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom provides an in-depth breakdown of all of UFC 215’s main-card bouts.

UFC 215 takes place Saturday at Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on FS1 and UFC Fight Pass.

* * * *

Demetrious Johnson (26-2-1 MMA, 14-1-1 UFC)

Demetrious Johnson

Staple info:

• Height: 5’3? Age: 31 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 66?
• Last fight: Submission win over Wilson Reis (April 15, 2017)
• Camp: AMC Pankration (Kirkland, Wash.)
• Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
• Risk management: Excellent

Supplemental info:
+ UFC flyweight champion
+ Amateur MMA tites
+ 5 KO wins
+ 9 submission victories
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ Relentless pace and pressure
+ Incredible speed
+ Superb footwork
^ Finds and creates angles
+ Diverse arsenal of attack
^ Variates timing and techniques
+ Adjusts well throughout fight
+ Creative clinch game
^ Stifles, strikes, sets up takedowns
+ Excellent transitional grappler
+ Never slows / recovers well

Ray Borg (11-2 MMA, 5-2 UFC)

Ray Borg

Staple info:

• Height: 5’4? Age: 30 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 63?
• Last fight: Decision win over Jussier Formiga (March 11, 2016)
• Camp: Jackson-Wink MMA (New Mexico)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/Kickboxing
• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA title
+ Wrestling base
+ 1 KO victory
+ 6 submission wins
+ 4 first-round finishes
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Improved overall striking
^ Defensively and offensively
+ Excellent takedown ability
^ Solid level changes and chains
+ Superb scrambler / transitional grappler
^ Always looks for back
+ Works well from topside
^ Floats and rides smoothly
+ Effective ground striker
^ Dangerous elbows

Summary:

The main event for UFC 215 is a title fight in the flyweight division as Demetrious Johnson takes on Ray Borg.

Considered by many to be the sport’s best pound-for-pound tactician,“Mighty Mouse” Johnson has continued to display dominance amongst his contemporaries. Currently tied with Anderson Silva for most title defenses in UFC history (10), Johnson will attempt to further cement his name in the history books of MMA.

Seeking to spoil the party is “The Tazmexican Devil” Borg, the division’s No. 3-ranked contender (according to the UFC), who has long-been considered a dark horse by many. Now, tasked with his tallest order to date, Borg will attempt to upset the oddsmakers as he goes trophy hunting at the highest level.

Starting off on the feet, I suspect the champion, Johnson, will have his biggest on-paper advantages, as I see his speed and footwork playing his most crucial role for success. Since entering the organization in 2011, we have seen steady but tangible improvements from Johnson.

Demonstrating a preternatural sense of range, Johnson has been able to apply his speed to techniques, as he finds angles beautifully from both stances. Not only can the champion fight from each side, but he can also shift smoothly between southpaw and orthodox as he attacks in combination.

Still, Johnson will need to respect what is coming back at him, as Borg will have offense of his own to offer. A quick, explosive striker himself, the New Mexican native has been steadily sharpening his game under the care of Brandon Gibson and the rest of the staff at Jackson-Wink MMA.

Demonstrating improvements to his head movement and footwork, Borg can now better facilitate the strikes that he likes to throw. And considering that Borg throws sharp hooks and uppercuts with an occasional flying knee, he could come up big against an opponent who is consistently dipping and/or changing his level.

Regardless of how striking stanzas play out, I believe that the clinch battles will be the make-or-break point of this matchup, making it a key junction for both men.

Despite the clinch being a gateway for Borg to get this fight to the floor, it is also a pathway that can be deceptive to pass through considering the clinching acumen of the champion. A flow master and multi-tasker, there is no better examples of Johnson’s brilliance than when watching the evolution of his game inside of the clinch.

After being dropped in his first fight with John Dodson, Johnson intelligently adjusted by taking the fight into the clinch. Using a myriad of grips to trips, or strikes into high-crotch hikes, Johnson has developed quite the taste for breaking his opponents in close.

Since then, we have only seen these skills sharpened as we witnessed the champion dismember an Olympic wrestler within his comfort of the clinch, using brutal knees to break down his opposition.

Nevertheless, Johnson cannot afford to be caught sleeping or shifting gears in this space, as Borg is no slouch in tight. An excellent chain wrestler himself, Borg is relentless in his pursuit of the takedown, creatively utilizing his opponent’s levers against them.

Even if Borg fails to ground the champion, he could still create problems by simply doing enough to open up a scramble opportunity – a space the New Mexican native has proven to thrive within.

As his nickname would indicate, Borg is a ravenous scrambler who looks to snatch up submissions and positions in transit. That said, Borg’s game will need to be air-tight, as Johnson has shown that he can play the role of an escape artist when necessary.

Staying calm and composed at all times, Johnson typically uses textbook techniques to get out of very troublesome spots. Often utilizing a single-leg to lever himself to safety and or control a scramble, the champion will usually reverse position or break away with success.

The potential problem – in my opinion – is that the process of turtling out or into your opponent traditionally gives way to back-takes and front-headlocks, positions that are arguably Borg’s best spots.

Working well from the front-headlock, Borg has displayed an array of submission and positional threats as he sets up the back mount well from here. And given the success both Ian McCall and Tim Elliot had against Johnson from the front headlock, I would not be surprised to see Borg force the issue should he end up there.

Ultimately, it is hard to see either man easily getting ahead of the other on the mat without having to earn it first. Although the oddsmakers are not giving the challenger much of a chance at +800 odds, let’s not forget that there was a time where Borg was one of the few fighters pulling -800 lines in his favor.

Still, the numbers do arguably reflect the task at hand as the New Mexican native will need to venture deep into the woods to get his kill. And though I do not doubt Borg’s belief in himself for a second, it is hard to go against the best all-terrain fighter in the sport, as I see Johnson doing the bulk of his damage standing and in the clinch, frustrating the title challenger as he finds his finish in the later rounds.

Official pick: Johnson by decision

Official outcome: To be determined