Does Stephen Thompson have Tyron Woodley 'figured out'? If so, he paid for the knowledge in blood

By the fifth round, as Stephen Thompson tells us in the “Countdown to UFC 209” video, he had UFC welterweight champion Tyron Woodley pretty much figured out. He knew it, too. He felt it, he said, which might explain his strong finish in a fight that ended in the rarely seen majority draw.

What it doesn’t explain is exactly how and when he solved the Woodley (16-3-1 MMA, 6-2-1 UFC) puzzle, especially since Thompson (13-1-1 MMA, 8-1-1 UFC) spent the majority of the previous round bleeding and surviving, both of which he proved to be very skilled at.

It all started with Woodley’s right hand. After mauling Thompson on the mat in the first, then keeping things relatively even with him on the feet in Rounds 2 and 3, the fourth round was when Woodley finally landed the same shot that won him the welterweight strap, only this time the fight didn’t end when the other guy hit the floor.

In fact, after the first solid right hand, Thompson popped up like he’d landed on a spring. Then he retreated into a defensive mode just long enough to give him the ill-advised confidence to step into the second right hand, which is when he went down like a drunk falling off a barstool, grasping for anything within reach on his way down.

What followed next was a three-minute demonstration in resiliency. Sensing a finish, Woodley threw the book at Thompson. Punches, knees, elbows, even a guillotine choke that, had it worked, would have been Woodley’s first submission win since 2009.

Thompson held on, escaped and finished the round on top. Then he helped Woodley to his feet after the horn, one of those nice guy moves that has the added bonus of reminding the other guy that you just took his best shots and, know what, you’re not even mad. I’m not saying you can’t figure an opponent out like that, but there’s got to be an easier way.

From the outside, it would seem that what Thompson learned about Woodley over the course of their first 25 minutes inside the cage together is mostly stuff he probably should have known already.

Stuff like, if you get too careless while kicking this guy, he’s probably going to take you down. Stuff like, if he does get you down, he’s not going to let you up easily. Stuff like, he’ll slow down in the later rounds, but that right hand never stops being a problem. Stuff like, if you can cling to consciousness and refuse to give up under those occasional Woodley blitzes, the storm eventually subsides.

The question is how much it will help Thompson in Saturday night’s pay-per-view rematch in Las Vegas to have experienced the lesson firsthand back at UFC 205.

After 20 pro fights and roughly seven years as a pro, the die seems more or less cast when it comes to Woodley. He might get better or more efficient at the things he does, but he’s still a bread-and-butter fighter who thinks takedowns and right hands before anything else.

Thompson, with his traditional martial arts style that he’s molded to suit his MMA needs, feels like the one with more room for growth. When you depend so heavily on footwork and distance control, figuring out those important little things about an opponent could make all the difference.

Then again, the nice thing about being a fighter like Woodley is that you don’t always have to figure too much out. All you need is to get the other guy on the business end of your right hand once, and suddenly all other concerns just vanish.

But one thing Woodley must have figured out from the first fight is that Thompson isn’t the type to go away quietly. He’s more the type to keep clinging to the cliff even as you’re stomping on his fingers.

For the champion, that’s the part he needs to figure out, if not for the sake of victory than at least for cementing his status atop the welterweight division.

Those “money fights” he wants? If he can hang on to his title, those fights are out there. It’s just that one gets the sense the UFC might rather wait and see if it can’t give them to someone else. Maybe even someone like Thompson, provided he can put the lessons of the first fight to use in the second.

And for more on UFC 209, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.