DraftKings players ought to avoid the third fight in the Dan Henderson vs. Vitor Belfort trilogy. While there's some logic in taking Belfort ($10,800) considering he flattened Henderson with a first-round KO via head kick in November 2013, there's more reasons to doubt he'll repeat that performance.
The post-testosterone replacement therapy version of the 38-year-old Belfort is not the KO artist he used to be. Belfort has fought just once since then. He was stopped in the first round by UFC middleweight champion Chris Weidman.
Because we know Henderson ($8,600) has a legendary chin, it's difficult to imagine Belfort connecting with Henderson and stopping him again. Likewise, a Henderson stoppage win seems far-fetched. He wants to load up his powerful right hand—which he used to stop Tim Boetsch in June—and put his opponent's lights out.
The 45-year-old legend simply isn't as efficient with his one-dimensional plan these days. He's won just two of his last seven fights. This bout screams: boring unanimous decision with low fantasy totals.
Instead, here's a list of the fighters you should tab in Saturday's card.
| Fighter | Opponent | Salary |
| Thomas Almeida | Anthony Birchak | $10,900 |
| Gleison Tibau | Abel Trujillo | $9,800 |
| Viscardi Andrade | Gasan Umalatov | $9,500 |
| Gilbert Burns | Rashid Magomedov | $9,400 |
| Chas Skelly | Edmilson "Kevin" Souza | $10,100 |
Salaries per DraftKings, picks by Mazique
Thomas Almeida ($10,900)
Thomas Almeida is a must for any DK lineup for this event. In fact, there are few more automatic DraftKings selections in the UFC. He has secured wins in all three of his fights in the UFC. Two of those wins have come by stoppage. In the process, he's averaging 95.2 fantasy points per fight.
On Saturday, he'll tangle with a good fighter in Anthony Birchak.
While Birchak possesses some power—as evidenced by his TKO of Joe Soto in June, he doesn't have the complete toolbox of strikes and grappling game Almeida possesses. Per FightMetric.com, Almeida lands seven strikes per minute with 50 percent accuracy. Because Birchak wants to land a big shot, he should be there to hit.
Performing in front of his home fans for the second time in his UFC career should have Almeida charged and ready to shine. Bank on a TKO finish from the dynamic Brazilian.
Chas Skelly ($10,100)
Not many people regard Chas Skelly as one of the top young featherweights in the UFC. The more he wins, the more he may ultimately deserve to be seen as a contender. He's won three fights in a row, with all three coming by stoppage.
On Saturday, he will face a tough, powerful and aggressive striker in Brazil's Edmilson "Kevin" Souza ($9,300). The latter has 15 wins, with 13 of them coming by KO or TKO. That includes two straight KO wins in the UFC.
Souza is a thought—especially considering his reasonable salary—but Skelly is my pick to win. While he gets the most attention for his grappling and submission skills, Skelly is also an improved striker.
He dismantled Jim Alers with punches and knees en route to a TKO victory in February. He won't want to spend a ton of time trading with Souza, but Skelly can hold his own long enough to take the fight to the ground. There, he has a big advantage over Souza.
The latter has acquired all three losses on his professional record via submission. On Saturday, Skelly will make it four.
Gleison Tibau ($9,800)
Abel Trujillo has a comparable salary at $9,600, but Gleison Tibau is the smarter pick in this fight. Trujillo has never shown much of a ground game. Against a guy like Tibau, that's a fatal flaw. Trujillo is a powerful striker with a sturdy chin, but technically, Tibau should eat him for lunch. Emotion is perhaps Trujillo's best weapon and biggest flaw. He can often burn himself out, or put himself in harm's way because of his aggression.
The uber-experienced 32-year-old Brazilian has 33 professional wins, with 13 by submission. Tibau will be looking to take advantage of Trujillo's wildness. It shouldn't take long for this fight to go to the ground, and once it does, Tibau will pick up the submission victory.
Viscardi Andrade ($9,500)
Despite losing his last fight via unanimous decision to Nicholas Musoke in February 2014, Viscardi Andrade is still an intriguing welterweight. He's a little stiff, but he's powerful and proficient on the ground.
Andrade is the pick here because he has perhaps the most favorable matchup of any fighter with a salary below $10,000. Gasan Umalatov seems like a prime candidate for release in the near future. In his last fight, he lost a split decision to Cathal Pendred in October 2014.
That was his second loss in three UFC bouts. He's a very one-dimensional grappler with slow feet and hands. On athleticism alone, Andrade should take the upper hand and finish this with a TKO, or a fantasy-productive unanimous-decision win.
Gilbert Burns ($9,400)
Despite being undefeated in his professional mixed martial arts career, Gilbert Burns has shown some vulnerability in his most recent fights. He needed a third-round armbar to beat Alex Oliveira in March, and he went the distance with Andreas Stahl in his UFC debut in 2012.
On Saturday, Burns faces rugged Russian Rashid Magomedov. The latter prefers to dispatch his opponents with strikes, but he may find it difficult to get a bead on Burns. The Brazilian will be the quicker and stronger fighter, though his striking isn't as refined as his opponent's.
Chances are he knows that, and thus Burns will likely be working to take the fight to the ground, where he can pile up points while in top control. He'll make attempts to finish with submission, but it seems unlikely he'll complete the process.
Instead, Burns is a better pick to win via unanimous decision.
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