The MMA world got turned upside down when Nate Diaz upset Conor McGregor at UFC 196. The deeply laid promotional plans, the carefully constructed aura, the grand aspirations of holding three UFC titles by year's end? Gone. Each and every one.
McGregor is in rebuilding mode but, if recent reports are true, he has a grand opportunity to right that ship. According to MMAFighting.com's Ariel Helwani, McGregor will likely get a second crack at Diaz at UFC 200. Reaction to the news has been resoundingly negative but, as has been proven time and again, even if fans will complain about a match on the internet beforehand, that doesn't mean they won't tune in when the time comes.
With that in mind, there is only one real question to ask about Diaz vs. McGregor 2. Will it go any differently? Bleacher Report's Patrick Wyman and Steven Rondina are here to analyze their 196 fight and predict what will happen in the sequel.
Patrick Wyman: With rumor spreading of a Nate Diaz vs. Conor McGregor rematch getting lined up for the main event of UFC 200, do we have any reason to believe that the Irishman stands a better chance this time around? Can he beat Stockton’s finest, or is he doomed to play second fiddle to the southpaw stylings of Nathan Donald Diaz?
Steven Rondina: I’m definitely surprised that they would book a rematch so soon after UFC 196. Fans have turned lukewarm on immediate rematches, and the promotion undercuts potential stars by subliminally telling fans that their breakout success was a fluke. I’m quite disappointed that we’re getting one somewhat interesting rematch instead of two fresher fights.
Literally every person - fan, fighter, media - I talked to this week wants @TheNotoriousMMA-@FrankieEdgar next. Hope @ufc gets it right.
— John Morgan (@MMAjunkieJohn) March 20, 2016
There’s a strange pattern when it comes to these sorts of matchups, though. More often than not with these quick rematches, the differences and similarities between the two fighters get magnified. Decisive wins turn into lopsided blowouts, while competitive fights turn into controversial split decisions.
I find myself applying that same sort of logic to this fight. Despite the loss, McGregor actually put on quite the show at UFC 196 and rendered Diaz a bloody mess before getting winded and submitted. He showed that he’s substantially quicker than Diaz and is capable of getting inside that long jab and landing his left hand.
I think it’s those things that will be magnified rather than the cardio troubles that slowed him down late in the first round. His loss to Diaz, I think, was more so an issue with his approach, rather than any issue with technique. I think McGregor will enter UFC 200 smarter, and I’d actually flat-out pick him to win a rematch.
Patrick: On your first point, McGregor isn’t Fabricio Werdum and Diaz definitely isn’t Cain Velasquez, nor are they even Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard. That sort of perpetual ennui shouldn’t necessarily follow here: This is Conor McGregor and Nate Diaz, two of the most compelling personalities in the sport.
I agree, though, that there were other, more creative ways for them to book these two fighters. This reeks of a short-term money grab.
While this is a winnable fight for McGregor, there are two things that make this a difficult matchup for him.
First, the combination of Diaz’s height and drastically more versatile lead hand in a southpaw-southpaw matchup give him a whole chunk of range beyond the end of McGregor’s left hand, where the Irishman doesn’t have many tools. He got stuck on the end of Diaz’s punches in the first fight and abandoned his kicks, which let the American work him over.
Range is a solvable problem if McGregor commits to his kicking game and maintains his steady pressure. The second issue, though, is one of pace and approach. McGregor wants to throw volume. He wants to get his opponent out of there once they taste his power. Neither of those things is a good idea against a ridiculously durable fighter with incredible cardio, particularly when he has to repeatedly expend energy exploding forward through the range gap.
Can he force himself to slow his pace, stick a single shot and then move out of the way? Can he do that over and over and over again?
Steven: The MMA universe definitely forgot how great Diaz actually is at fighting. That will happen when a guy has two prolonged layoffs and ugly losses with the only respite being a throwaway win over the jalopy that is 2013’s Gray Maynard. His boxing is really, truly good, and that shined bright in his match against McGregor.
The thing is, we’ve never really seen Diaz neutralize somebody with McGregor's elusiveness. Sure, we’ve seen him demolish some solid MMA strikers over the years like Donald Cerrone and Takanori Gomi, but McGregor isn’t usually the type to stand in place and eat jabs or rely entirely on one-punch knockouts.
McGregor and the UFC have shown that I am far, far too trusting when it comes to lesson-learning, but I’m going to go out on a limb again. I think this rematch will be “vintage” Conor McGregor. I think he’ll bounce, create angles and mix up levels and strikes against Diaz in the rematch.
The big question in my mind is if McGregor will once again get baited into a slugfest. If he doesn't, I think we could see McGregor run away with this one.
Patrick: When McGregor got tired, standing in front of Nate Diaz and eating jabs while looking for the one-punch knockout is exactly what he did. That’s the heart of what makes this difficult for McGregor: Diaz is happy to fight at his pace, he has the range advantage and he can eat McGregor’s destructive left hand.
I keep harping on this because beating Diaz will require the Irishman to fight against his preferences, even assuming a “vintage” McGregor shows up. He can’t fight as fast as he wants, Diaz won’t crumble under his power and he won’t be able to stick Diaz on the end of his shots.
A vintage McGregor won’t get the job done here, because that McGregor still runs into these same problems. Instead, he needs to evolve, and do so quickly. He can apply some of the tools that are already in his arsenal—long kicks, head movement, angles, takedowns and top control—but he has to do so in ways that won’t be comfortable for him.
The first fight didn’t show that McGregor can’t beat Diaz, but it did show us what a challenge the matchup is for him.
Steven: I put vintage in quotes up there for a reason! I agree with you that McGregor will have to add a couple new wrinkles to his game and attack Diaz in ways we haven’t seen before. The thing is, I think he’s very capable of doing it. He has all the right tools at his disposal; he just needs to use them in the proper way.
Diaz is, indeed, a tough matchup for him both from a physical and technical standpoint, but I think McGregor has everything he needs to come out on top of a rematch at UFC 200. I think that McGregor is smart enough to move in and out, mix up his attack and make Diaz uncomfortable, culminating in a finish in the championship rounds. That’s my early prediction. What’s yours?
Patrick: McGregor really is a special talent, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he could put all of those tools together into the package necessary to beat Diaz. He’s shown before that he’s smart and knows how to adjust the pieces of his game to specific opponents.
I’m taking the 209’s finest, though, at least for my early prediction. McGregor isn’t suddenly going to develop a killer jab and right hook, he isn’t going to grow three inches overnight and I have my doubts as to whether he can restrain himself from slipping into Diaz’s kind of fight when the temptation appears.
