Anderson Silva vs. Nick Diaz: Great Fighters, Terrible Fight?

I love Nick Diaz. 

In the spirit of full disclosure I think it's important to tell you that up front. It's a manly platonic love. Purely unprofessional? Sure. And deeply held.

Everything about Diaz resonates with me. His intransigence and "me against the world" outlook, his willingness to endure tremendous punishment in order to make his point to an opponent and his obnoxious petulance in the face of any and all obstacles—I feel that, man. 

There's tragic glory waiting to reveal itself every time Diaz fights. Even his moment of greatest triumph was eventually ruined by his own fondness for marijuana. Diaz can't get out of his own way.

That's beautiful sadness.

But even as Nick Diaz's biggest fan, it's been hard for me to get too excited about his fight with Anderson Silva at UFC 183 this Saturday. In every other Diaz tilt I've been able to convince myself, whether logical or not, that there was a path to victory for Stockton's finest. Even against the great Georges St-Pierre I dared to dream.

With Silva, however, my heart has failed completely in the one mission I assigned it—overcoming my stubborn and analytical brain telling me that all signs point to a comeback win for the "Spider."

It's clear that the UFC is looking at the fight as a stepping stone for Silva. President Dana White is already dreaming of a third bout between the former champion and current middleweight kingpin Chris Weidman? And why not? Their last bout was the most successful UFC pay-per-view in years.

That means Diaz is seen as the opponent here. He's the big name coming in to lose, a resume line chosen specifically for how well he matches up with Silva. 

Diaz is a recklessly aggressive striker who never stops moving forward. Silva is the ultimate counterpuncher, a man who likes nothing better than to see an opponent moving towards him, the fly completely unaware of the web he's walking into.

Nothing I did seemed to help relieve doubt. I read striking expert Connor Ruebusch's ode to Diaz and was briefly able to suspend disbelief. Diaz's unbelievable pace and willingness to absorb punishment, he argues, makes him a threat to anyone, even Anderson Silva:

It takes a highly disciplined opponent to consistently evade Diaz's attacks, and with each failed attempt Diaz's confidence grows, and his aggression with it. Despite the linear nature of his offensive footwork, he is more than happy to put wide, stinging hooks at the end of a combination, deceptively powerful punches that catch anything in a wide arc before him even as they allow him to pull his head back out of the range of his opponent's counters...Of the eighteen men who have tried to stick to a gameplan and deny the ever-mounting Diaz swarm since 2006, only two have succeeded, and neither of them was able to thwart him entirely.

Michael Bisping, Fox Sports 1 commentator and perennial middleweight contender, agrees that this is where Silva is vulnerable. I asked him to make a case for Diaz. He did his best.

"Opponents can't stand back too much or he'll get comfortable and get into a real rhythm and start opening up with his boxing combinations," Bisping said. "I think he's capable of taking Anderson out of his comfort zone...I would say he has the better hands and better combinations. That's how Diaz wins this fight."

In Diaz's perfect world. that relentless forward momentum ends in one place—up against the cage, where he brutalizes foes with sweeping hooks to the body and bullies them with his head to keep them right where he wants them. 

"I've always been gunning for Anderson myself," Bisping said. "People would often ask me 'what would be your game plan?' And I'd try to back him up. I'd do just what Diaz will try to do—back him up against the fence and not give him room to maneuver. Anderson likes space. He likes to be in striking range. He likes to have room to circle away from his opponent and be just close enough to counter. Pushing him against the fence takes that away." 

Of course, Bisping cautions, even getting exactly what you want against Silva can be extremely dangerous. Chael Sonnen wanted to take him to the mat. He got a triangle choke for his troubles. Rich Franklin, the former middleweight champion, wanted, like Diaz, to push him against the cage and rough him up. The result wasn't pretty.

"Rich Franklin found out the hard way. And after that fighters haven't been so keen to get into the clinch with Anderson," Bisping said. "You can stay in boxing range and still be at the advantage. Don't get so close that Anderson can clinch. You can stand toe-to-toe without necessarily being chest-to-chest which is where he can get the Thai clinch."

That's a fine line. And Diaz, almost inevitably, ends up in the clinch in every single bout, drawn to the intimacy of close quarter combat.

Of course, that's assuming Silva will allow the fight to proceed on Diaz's terms. Against Carlos Condit, Diaz's two fatal flaws were revealed to the world. He struggles against a mobile opponent, following his foe in circles  rather than cutting off the cage. He's also vulnerable to low leg kicks, refusing to check them and having to press the reset button again and again if a persistent opponent is willing to actively attack his extremities.  

If Silva was watching the Condit fight closely, he may be able to forestall Nick's best opportunities.

And then there's the small matter of weight. Silva is a full-sized middleweight who has dominated the biggest and best fighters in that division for nearly a decade. That, according to Fightland's Jack Slack, is a big deal:

The strength and size advantage for Silva is a significant one. The reason that none of the other super fights from the “summer of super fights” the other year came to fruition is that there is a reason that fighters cut weight. 

Diaz has spent the bulk of his career at 170 pounds, even dropping down to lightweight in his younger days. He's used to fighting men his size and smaller.

"The thing about Diaz is that he has a very long reach," Bisping said. "That's always been advantageous when he's fought guys at 170. Against Anderson, he's not going to have that reach advantage."

Bisping points out, however, that there can be advantages in moving up a class, even if you're still able to make the weight.

"When you cut weight, you lose muscle mass as well," Bisping pointed out. "It just goes hand and hand with extreme dieting.  You do lose a bit of strength and you do lose a bit of punching power. Diaz will certainly go into this fight as strong as he's ever been. He's been able to eat correctly, he didn't have to diet so he's been able to recover after every training session. I expect Diaz to be in the best shape of his life. Maybe not to look at. But in terms of endurance, strength and punching power." 

It's an interesting proposition when you consider it that way. Diaz, at 31, could be peaking, his physical condition and martial skills aligning perfectly at just the right moment in time.

Silva, by contrast, is nearing 40. His last two fights have ended via brutal knockout and devastating leg break respectively.  He hasn't fought in more than a year. Considering so much of his game revolves around the breathtaking speed and reflexes he uses to counter an opponent's every misstep, it's safe to assume age will not be his friend.

Could Diaz actually pull this off? 

Slack, for one, doesn't see it as a likely turn of events:

...the stylistic match up is a horrible one for Diaz. He walks forward, he can't cut off the ring, and he repeatedly throws himself head first into the double collar tie when he gets there.

...Diaz is fighting Silva in Silva's world, at Silva's weight, and provides exactly the kind of fighter Silva wants. Aggressive, emotional, and completely oblivious to the effects of lateral movement and low kicks.

That's a damning account, a version of reality I can't bring myself to face. I choose to believe Diaz will march forward, he will force Silva to fight and he will show the world that will power and endurance can overcome native ability. 

Yes, this is Silva's fight to lose. But it's a fight he could lose. There is a path for Diaz to walk. There is hope and in hope lie dreams.

That may not be much. But for sports fans who have seen the impossible, it's enough. In the end, a Diaz fan must live by the man's own immortal words—"Don't be scared homie."

Jonathan Snowden is Bleacher Report's lead combat sports writer. All quotes were obtained first hand unless otherwise noted.