UFC is rolling out the red carpet for fans to end 2015 with Jose Aldo making his triumphant return to the Octagon on Saturday in a featherweight championship unification fight with Conor McGregor at UFC 194.
Aldo and McGregor were originally scheduled to settle the debate over the best featherweight fighter at UFC 189 in July, but a rib injury to Aldo that caused a lot of controversy forced him to withdraw from the bout.
McGregor kept his spot on the card, defeated Chad Mendes to win the interim featherweight title and has become one of UFC's biggest stars since that night five months ago.
Yet the one thing McGregor hasn't done is beat the reigning champion inside the Octagon. He may be one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world, but nothing matters until he proves it against Aldo.
| Main Card | Matchup | Odds | Prediction |
| Featherweight Championship | Jose Aldo (c) vs. Conor McGregor (ic) | McGregor (-115) | Aldo via third-round submission |
| Middleweight Championship | Chris Weidman (c) vs. Luke Rockhold | Weidman (-135) | Weidman via split decision |
| Middleweight Bout | Ronaldo Souza vs. Yoel Romero | Souza (-150) | Souza via first-round submission |
| Welterweight Bout | Demian Maia vs. Gunnar Nelson | Maia (-115) | Nelson via unanimous decision |
| Featherweight Bout | Max Holloway vs. Jeremy Stephens | Holloway (-550) | Holloway via split decision |
| Preliminary Card (FS1) | Matchup | Odds | Prediction |
| Bantamweight Bout | Urijah Faber vs. Frankie Saenz | Faber (-750) | Faber via second-round submission |
| Women's Strawweight Bout | Tecia Torres vs. Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger | Torres (-300) | Torres via unanimous decision |
| Welterweight Bout | Warlley Alves vs. Colby Covington | Covington (-120) | Alves via split decision |
| Lightweight Bout | Leonardo Santos vs. Kevin Lee | Lee (-700) | Lee via second-round TKO |
| Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass) | Matchup | Odds | Prediction |
| Lightweight Bout | Joe Proctor vs. Magomed Mustafaev | Mustafaev (-365) | Mustafaev via first-round TKO |
| Lightweight Bout | John Makdessi vs. Yancy Medeiros | Makdessi (-165) | Makdessi via third-round KO |
| Welterweight Bout | Court McGee vs. Marcio Alexandre Jr. | McGee (-175) | McGee via unanimous decision |
Source: UFC.com, Odds per OddsShark.com
Pre-Main Event Hype
The pre-fight press conference earlier this week did not present the kind of fireworks fans may have hoped for, though McGregor was still making sure he took all the focus away from Aldo, per UFC Europe:
Jose Aldo and Conor McGregor face off at the #UFC194 presser!! Don’t miss this one on Saturday night!! https://t.co/GH2OG4nh5t
— UFC Europe (@UFCEurope) December 9, 2015
McGregor's rising star seems to have made some forget about Aldo's greatness, which is understandable because we live in a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately society. Aldo hasn't fought since Oct. 2014, defeating Mendes by unanimous decision in a spectacular five-round battle.
Aldo hasn't lost a fight since Nov. 2005, the only blemish on his professional resume in 26 career fights, and he's ranked No. 1 on UFC.com's official pound-for-pound rankings.
Yet, as noted by ESPN's Jon Anik, McGregor has been the betting favorite most of the way leading up to Saturday's bout:
For the first time, seeing a live line w/ Jose Aldo as the betting favorite (-120) over Conor McGregor (-110). Aldo was +150 last week.
— Jon Anik (@Jon_Anik) December 10, 2015
There are certainly reasons to love McGregor, aside from having the charisma of Chael Sonnen with the talent to back it up. He's on his own long winning streak, not dropping a fight since Nov. 2010, and has won four of his five career UFC fights by TKO.
Yet this fight almost feels like a passing of the torch, even though Aldo is just 29 years old. There have been rumors he was contemplating retirement after UFC 194, which have already been shot down by the featherweight champion.
Per Ariel Helwani of MMAFighting.com, McGregor has said he's using this matchup with Aldo to show everyone he's the best fighter in the world:
McGregor: this will prove my point that I'm number 1.
— Ariel Helwani (@arielhelwani) December 9, 2015
McGregor's power isn't substantially better than Aldo's, though the Irishman does have a four-inch reach advantage that will help him attack from further distances. But Aldo is fantastic at avoiding hits, owning a significant strike defense percentage of 72.24, and he's impossible to take down with a 91.25 percent defense in that category, per UFC.com.
One thing McGregor does so well is disguise his strikes, acting like a magician with right-hand misdirection before attacking with his left hand, per MMA History Today:
Slowmo Saturday The straight left hand of Conor McGregor Look at how he masks that attack with other strikes pic.twitter.com/J4Xk6znzlf
— MMA History Today (@MMAHistoryToday) December 5, 2015
That is a rare skill very few fighters in the world can defend. Aldo is one of them, though there is the potential for him to be working off ring rust thanks to a 13-month layoff.
It's not the first instance Aldo has had a long time between fights. He went 13 months between fights in Jan. 2012 to Feb. 2013, defeating Frankie Edgar by unanimous decision in his return.
Edgar is a terrific all-around fighter, but he's not an apt comparison to McGregor because Edgar isn't in the same class.
Aldo doesn't want to get in a standing fight with McGregor and risk leaving himself vulnerable to those powerful strikes. Aldo's ability on the ground and wrestling is what separates him from the interim champion and why he will ultimately win.
In a matchup between two elite competitors, the one with a more diverse skill set will always get the advantage. Aldo can do more things than McGregor, even though McGregor's power gives him a strong chance to win.
