Will Tatsuro Taira Remain Unbeaten Against Alex Perez?

On 15 June at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, undefeated Japanese phenomenon Tatsuro Taira will enter the octagon again, taking on the more experienced Alex Perez in the flyweight division. It will mark Taira’s sixth UFC outing and, in a late twist, his first headline bout.

It was only on 14 May that Taira and Perez learned they’d be fighting each other. Ranked fifth in the division, Perez was booked to take on Tagir Ulanbekov on this date, while Taira was lined up to fight on 1 June against Joshua Van. Instead, all four will battle at UFC on ESPN 58.

Naturally, the Okinawa native is the main talking point for the event. He has enjoyed an incredible run since turning professional in mixed martial arts, putting on headline-reel performances to brush aside the foes put before him so far. Now, Taira faces his toughest opponent yet in a former title challenger.

Taira’s rise to prominence

Tatsuro Taira boasts a 15-0 career record, with four wins coming by way of knockout and seven being won by submission. He trained in kickboxing before pivoting to mixed martial arts, achieving purple belt status in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and winning both Kyushu and All-Japan Amateur Shooto Championships in 2017.

With a 10-0 amateur record in the books, Taira turned his attention to the professional ranks. Under the Shooto banner, he recorded nine wins in nine fights and claimed the flyweight championship in just three years of fighting. To finish 2021, a pivot to Vale Tudo Japan saw Taira beat Alfredo Muaiad by rear-naked choke in the first round to take the LFN flyweight title.

Just three months later, Taira signed a multi-fight deal with the UFC. After another three months, the rising Japanese star finally made his UFC debut. Taking on Carlos Candelario after the fight was delayed for a couple of weeks, Taira’s opponent missed weight by 1.5 pounds. They didn’t touch gloves as a result.

Candelario came charging out of the gates, but Taira was able to shrug off takedown attempts and absorb some heavy-looking shots before going on to control the fight by landing lots of kicks. This sent Candelario to the turf, relentlessly seeking the stoppage on the ground. With another minute added to the third, he may have stopped the clock.

Even with the 3-0 unanimous decision win, it’s clear that his UFC debut was a frustrating one – from not quite being able to finish the fight to his opponent weighing in too heavy – but five months later, Taira was back in action.

Next, Taira battled in a pre-planned catchweight bout at 130 pounds against Edgar Chairez. On this occasion, he demonstrated his total fighter credentials, landing several sublime strikes, taking the game to ground in a split second, dominating once Chairez was on the mat, and sliding out of the holds and chokes that were attempted on him.

This time, the final round ended with Taira in a precarious situation. Chairez’s mounted guillotine choke may have taken the fight with more seconds on the clock, but Taira refused to give in to his tired opponent’s late attempt.

Up against Carlos Hernandez to end 2023, the first round started cagey and at range, but that quickly changed. An attempt from Hernandez to lift and slam Taira ended with the mid-air Japanese fighter sending the aggressor to the mat and landing on top. The first ended with Taira very much on top and in control. Hernandez’s early aggression in the second was punished by crisp shots from Taira that sent Hernandez down and ended with a TKO via punches.

In the UFC alone, Taira has demonstrated that he’s a complete and gritty fighter who is perfectly happy to scramble on the ground, work his way out of dangerous situations, or trade blows standing up. Given his ascendency, it’s easy to see why there’s so much hype around the 15-0 fighter.

Another step up for Taira

A UFC champion in the eyes of many people, Tatsuro Taira has landed well in the UFC, but his upcoming bout with Alex Perez will certainly pose a heightened challenge. Perez is 24-8 in his career and has bookended a three-fight losing streak with wins in the UFC, with his last win not only being very recent but also on short notice against Matheus Nicolau.

The former flyweight title challenger can be considered back on track and having momentum coming up against the undefeated up-and-comer, who is eight years his junior. Perez stands as the gatekeeper to the business end of the UFC’s flyweight division, ranking fifth in the division after recently defeating the now-eighth-ranked Nicolau.

Taira, ranked 13th in the division, does offer up some comparable stats to his Californian foe. Admittedly drawing from a smaller sample size, the significant strikes landed per minute (3.51-4.10), takedown average per 15 minutes (2.12-2.06), significant strike defence (47%-59%), and takedown defence (71%-83%) look to offer a close bout.

Taira’s 71% strike accuracy to Perez’s 46% can be a bit misleading. This is because the Japanese man’s significant strikes landed are distributed as 36% while standing and 61% on the ground. Perez fires far more on his feet, with 70% of his significant strikes hitting while he’s standing.

Perez is a sharp striker with swift feet, and his most recent fight came via a knockout punch in the second round. Taira and his team will recognise this and will presumably look for more takedowns and go for another submission – even with Perez’s 83% takedown defence.

Will Taira rise to the challenge?

Alex Perez comes in as the more experienced and higher-ranked fighter, but his opponent is very clearly the favourite as fight night approaches. Tatsuro Taira to win gets odds of -182, while Perez is the underdog at +140.

The Tapology polls at the time of writing had Taira as the 79-21 favourite, with the vast majority predicting a submission triumph for Taira. Perez’s backers give him a roughly 50-50 shot at winning via submission or knockout. Nevertheless, you’ll find your fair share of predictions that see this as a step too far and too early for Taira.

Alex Perez’s recent run may be disheartening for backers of the American fighter, but at least in terms of rankings, his opponents have been rated higher than those of Taira. The loss that caused the three-fight skid was the main event title bout against Deiveson Figueiredo in 2020, which ended suddenly in the first round via a guillotine choke.

After falling short in the championship fight, Perez spent almost two years out of the octagon, showing some rust against Alexandre Pantoja to lose by a neck crank in the first round of the 30 July 2022 match. Pantoja would go on to claim the flyweight title.

In March 2024, Perez returned to duel Muhammad Mokaev. This was a much more even fight, and it took Perez beyond Round 1 for the first time in five fights since January 2020. Mokaev took the fight by unanimous decision, but on all three scorecards, it was a 29-28 result. He took that momentum and quickly spun into a late April bout with Nicolau, where he sent the Brazilian packing with an overhand right followed by a big right hook for the knockout victory in the second round.

In one way, you could read these recent results as Perez being overwhelmed by the best fighters in the division before getting some momentum back. On the other hand, Perez has gained valuable experience by going toe-to-toe and even losing against top-ranked fighters; he has come out the other side as a better combatant.

In terms of raw results, however, Perez was crumpled up on the ground and against the cage in the three fights he lost, only one of which surpassed the first round, managing to come out on top with a well-placed headshot in his recent win.

Taira is a tremendous threat if he gets a hold of Perez, toting a 2.42 submission average per 15 minutes. On top of this, the rising star’s 47% significant strike defence and 1.15 significant strikes absorbed per minute seemingly put Taira in good standing to work out Perez before working in some takedowns and grapples.

There isn’t any doubt that Perez has earned his place in the rankings and has proved himself worthy of a shot at the title. However, Taira’s obvious calibre, momentum, style, and well-rounded game look like they could be enough to extend his imperious record to 16-0.