Why Rousey vs. Correia is the rare squash match that makes perfect sense

Ronda Rousey and Bethe Correia

Seems like oddsmakers didn’t exactly torture themselves over Ronda Rousey’s next scheduled UFC women’s bantamweight title defense.

With the ink still wet on the bout agreement pitting Rousey against Bethe Correia at UFC 190, the people who make a living picking winners and losers have joined with the forces of common sense and declared, yeah, Rousey’s probably got this.

The closest betting line I could find on the fight? That comes from one online bookmaker who dubbed Rousey (11-0 MMA, 5-0 UFC) a mere -1250 favorite, meaning you’d have to bet $1,250 on her just to win $100 in the likely event of her victory. Correia (9-0 MMA, 3-0 UFC), on the other hand, is a +825 underdog.

To put that in perspective, remember when Matt Serra pulled off one of the biggest upsets in UFC championship history by knocking out Georges St-Pierre at UFC 69? Serra opened as a +500 underdog. T.J. Dillashaw, the man who de-monstered Renan Barao? He went off as a +765 underdog by fight time.

In other words, a win for Correia would easily rank among the most shocking upsets in UFC history, which is another way of saying that it almost certainly won’t happen. So then why does it still feel like a fight that is very much worth doing anyway? How can it feel like such a squash match, and one featuring a champion whose biggest problem is a lack of suitable competition, and also still feel like something we genuinely want to see?

Near as I can tell, there are two explanations at work here, and they both tell us something about what makes Rousey such a special fighter.

For one, there’s the fact that even if we write Correia off entirely, situating her chances of becoming champ somewhere between “ain’t no way” and “are you kidding me?”, it’s not as if she’s getting her shot at the expense of some more compelling contender in the division. Almost any 135-pound fight the UFC could make for Rousey right now would be a choice between someone she’d be very likely to utterly demolish and someone she already has.

Look around at the division. They’re all squash matches. Short of Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino shrinking down to 135 pounds just in time for beach season, there aren’t any female bantamweights who wouldn’t be colossal underdogs against Rousey right now.

That brings us to point No. 2, which is the one Correia must have been counting on when she took aim at Rousey’s “four horsewomen” crew. If we accept that choosing a challenger for Rousey’s belt means choosing between a collection of woefully outgunned competitors, then we might as well choose the one who seems like the most fun. In this case, that also means choosing the one who Rousey actually wants to hurt, rather than one she will merely consent to hurt.

Because if we can’t find anyone who can really challenge her, we might as well go with whoever can coax the greatest degree of destructive force out of the champion.

Correia’s got that going for her, at least. After gleefully picking off two of Rousey’s teammates, she’s earned enough of the champion’s attention that Rousey has promised to not only beat her, but embarrass her. It’s such a compelling threat in part because Rousey seems so capable of following through on it, but also because it establishes new, more interesting stakes in this fight.

Rousey’s dominance has gotten to the point where winning almost doesn’t seem like enough anymore. Winning is expected. Even when she wins quickly and decisively, which she pretty much always does, it feels like she’s just maintaining the status quo, which can’t help but become boring eventually. Now she’s set herself a slightly higher bar.

Beating Correia? Yeah, she’ll do that. That part’s implied. It’s assumed. But how, exactly, will she embarrass her? Will Correia’s comeuppance take the form of a prolonged, extra painful beating? Or will it be another one of those Rousey fights that’s over as soon as it starts?

Finding out the answer to this question is one of the best reasons to watch this fight. It also might be the best reason to think Correia has a shot, since 1) there aren’t many other good reasons. and 2) a vengeful Rousey might be a mistake-prone Rousey.

I mean, probably not. Probably it will be another spectacular display of dominance, the kind we’ve come to expect from the champ, and afterward we’ll be left to confront the same questions about competition and the need for challengers that we had before, only now with the field of possible contenders decreased by one.

Then again, who knows? Those oddsmakers have been wrong before. Just not when it comes to Rousey.

For more on UFC 190, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.