As the elder statesman of the UFC, age has been a stat that has had Dan Henderson counted out of his share of fights.
In fact, there might not anyone else in UFC history who has headlined events so regularly, yet so often was a betting underdog. Going into Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 77 main event in Brazil, “Hendo” has been the ‘dog in nine straight fights.
Looking at the historical betting figures from Best Fight Odds, Saturday will make it 10 in a row. Henderson (31-13 MMA, 8-7 UFC) is a +255 underdog on the conservative end and as much as +300 in his trilogy rematch against Vitor Belfort (24-11 MMA, 13-7 UFC), who is anywhere from -375 to -335, or well beyond 3-1 favorite status to win the rubber match in his home country.
UFC Fight Night 77 takes place Saturday at Ibirapuera Gymnasium in Sao Paulo. Following early prelims on UFC Fight Pass, the rest of the card airs on FOX Sports 1.
Henderson and Belfort first met at PRIDE 32 in 2006, where Henderson won a lopsided unanimous decision that included a 30-24 scorecard giving him three 10-8 rounds. When they fought again at UFC Fight Night 32 two years ago, Belfort closed around -250 to Henderson’s +210, and “The Phenom” stopped the American with a head kick.
This run of four and a half years of being an underdog started in June 2011, when legendary heavyweight Fedor Emelianenko was more than a 3-1 favorite against Henderson in what would be his final Strikeforce fight before returning to the UFC. Henderson won that fight with a first-round TKO. Bettors backing him were happy again his next time out against Mauricio Rua at UFC 139.
It hasn’t always been this way for Henderson, though. After he came back to the UFC in 2008 and suffered back-to-back PRIDE/UFC title unification losses to Quinton Jackson and Anderson Silva (the odds were close in both of those fights), Henderson was favored in six straight fights – three in the UFC and three when he moved to Strikeforce. He went 5-1 in those bouts, including a TKO win over Rafael Cavalcante to win the Strikeforce light heavyweight title.
Heading into Saturday’s 10th straight underdog appearance, Henderson is 4-5 in this run of fights he isn’t the favorite. But mixed in there are two split-decision losses, meaning he was just a couple rounds from a couple judges from being 6-3 as a ‘dog.
MMA math doesn’t always work out very well, especially when it’s looking at odds in the rearview mirror. But a $100 bet on Henderson to win each of his past nine fights as the underdog would have a bettor shelling out $900 over the run, but getting paid back $1,120 for a profit of $220 over the course of those fights.
If split-decision losses to Lyoto Machida and Rashad Evans went his way, all of a sudden a $900 investment would have paid back $1,680 for a hefty profit nearly doubling your wager over the course of the run.
But that’s a very big if, and moot since he lost. So what does it all mean on Saturday, when he’s +255 against Belfort? Maybe nothing. But one thing we know for sure: If a fighter as accomplished as Dan Henderson has been an underdog for 10 straight fights, what does that say about the competition he’s been facing? “Hendo” may be getting older, but the fights haven’t been getting any easier.
For more on UFC Fight Night 77, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.
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