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UFC 196 Fight Card: PPV Schedule, Odds and Predictions for McGregor vs. Diaz


UFC 196 Fight Card: PPV Schedule, Odds and Predictions for McGregor vs. Diaz

There's no bigger star in the UFC right now than Conor McGregor. At UFC 196, The Notorious will look to make that statement even more true in the main event. 

The featherweight champion is clearly on a mission to become the most accomplished fighter in the history of the UFC. Initially, he was supposed to vie for the lightweight championship belt against Rafael dos Anjos, which could have made him the only fighter to simultaneously hold two UFC belts at the same time. 

However, a foot injury pulled Dos Anjos off the card, and Nate Diaz was more than willing to take the fight at 170 pounds. 

Even with a last-minute replacement in Diaz, the card is supposed to be one of the most lucrative in the organization's history, per MMAFighting.com's Ariel Helwani:

It doesn't hurt that the co-main event is still for a strap. Holly Holm will look to make her first title defense after defeating Ronda Rousey against Miesha Tate in the co-main event. Here's a look at the entire card along with predictions for each bout. All odds are courtesy of Odds Shark

UFC 196 Card, Odds and Predictions
Main Card: PPV at 10 p.m. ET
Weight Class Matchup Prediction
Welterweight Conor McGregor (-400) vs. Nate Diaz (+300) McGregor by TKO
Women's bantamweight Holly Holm (c) (-300) vs. Miesha Tate (+230) Holm by decision
Light heavyweight Gian Villante (+160) vs. Ilir Latifi (-200) Latifi by TKO
Light heavyweight Corey Anderson (-325) vs. Tom Lawlor (+250) Anderson by decision
Women's bantamweight Amanda Nunes (-135) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (+105) Shevchenko by decision
Prelims: Fox Sports 1 at 8 p.m. ET
Weight Class Matchup Prediction
Welterweight Brandon Thatch (-325) vs. Siyar Bahadurzada (+250) Thatch by TKO
Welterweight Erick Silva (-235) vs. Nordine Taleb (+185) Silva by submission
Middleweight Vitor Miranda (-300) vs. Marcelo Guimaraes (+230) Miranda by TKO
Featherweight Darren Elkins (+140) vs. Chas Skelly (-170) Skelly by decision
Early Prelims: Fight Pass at 6:30 p.m. ET
Weight Class Matchup Prediction
Lightweight Diego Sanchez (+120) vs. Jim Miller (-150) Miller by decision
Lightweight Jason Saggo (-205) vs. Justin Salas (+165) Saggo by submission
Featherweight Julian Erosa (-205) vs. Teruto Ishihara (+165) Erosa by decision

Fight Card via UFC.com;Odds via Odds Shark; Predictions by author

What to Watch For

Conor McGregor Looks to Make History

Diaz is not nearly the opponent Dos Anjos would have been for McGregor, but he still has a shot to join an exclusive club. According to ESPN Stats & Info, the Irishman is looking to do something that only Kenny Florian has done in the UFC:

Florian's feat was no doubt impressive. But his two victories in the weight classes were nearly six years apart, and he went from winning at welterweight down to featherweight. 

McGregor is looking to accomplish the same feat by moving upward in just three months. Not to mention while he's still holding the belt at 145 pounds. 

The jump in weight seems extreme, but as Chamatkar Sandhu of MMAjunkie illustrates, McGregor actually looks healthier at 170 pounds than he did when cutting to 145:

McGregor's aspirations in the welterweight division aren't limited to Diaz. The superstar has hinted that he'd like to challenge for the belt, and it's an idea that UFC president Dana White isn't necessarily opposed to. 

"I'm open to whatever he's considering doing," White said at the UFC 196 pre-fight press conference, per Damon Martin of Fox Sports. "I mean if he wants to fight at 170 and he wants to fight Robbie Lawler, Conor is tough to deny these days."

McGregor could find himself in line for a title shot after a dispatching of Diaz in this fight. 

Miesha Tate's Final Shot at a Title?

Tate might have been the biggest beneficiary of Holm's upset of Rousey

Before Holm's victory, she was stuck in the precarious position of proving her worth against nearly every up-and-comer, but she had two losses to the former champion. Essentially, she was forced to become the test for all challengers instead of being a challenger for the title herself. 

Now, with a new champion, Tate has yet another crack at becoming a titleholder in the UFC. Holm was the Kryptonite for Rousey that Tate always wanted to be and took the title. Now Tate gets to focus on an opponent other than her nemesis. 

"Right now, there's no other match than Saturday. There's no looking beyond this, and I don't know if Ronda's ever going to come back," Tate said, per Martin Domin of the Daily Mail. "I can't bank on what's next when I have to accomplish this first."

Tate faces somewhat long odds at UFC 196. Holm's win over Rousey has made her the prohibitive favorite over Cupcake in the co-main event. But Tate is a different challenge than the Rowdy was. 

Given that all of Tate's last three wins were by decision, she's proven that she can go an entire fight and force Holm to prove herself as the champion. 

Can Ilir Latifi Continue His Knockout Streak?

Ilir Latifi is proof of the good things that can happen to a fighter when they help out the company. The light heavyweight made his UFC debut on just four days notice, filling in for injured teammate Alexander Gustafsson against Gegard Mousasi

As one might expect, the debut didn't go his way. He lost a decision to the now-middleweight contender. Still, it opened the door for the hulking Swede to go 4-1 since that fight, with all four wins coming by way of a finish in the first round. 

Latifi is a powerhouse, and in an division with a serious need for interesting contenders, it wouldn't be surprising to see Latifi's name show up in the rankings sooner rather than later. The question is if he can continue his streak of finishes against an opponent in Gian Villante, who holds a five-inch height advantage and is coming off a knockout victory of his own. 

Latifi says he will go for the finish if it presents itself, but he's also prepared if the fight turns into a war. 

“When the opportunity comes to finish, I’m going to go for it,” Latifi said, per John Morgan and Ken Hathaway of MMAjunkie. “But I always prepare for a tough fight.”

Serving as the lead-in to fights for both Holm and McGregor, Latifi will presumably have a lot of eyeballs on his performance tonight. Another quick knockout would make him one of the evening's biggest winners. 

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