UFC rings in the new year with a showdown between Robbie Lawler and Carlos Condit, two of the best knockout artists in mixed martial arts, for the welterweight championship at UFC 195.
Lawler has been on fire since losing to Johny Hendricks in Mar. 2014, winning four consecutive fights and two by TKO, highlighted by a rematch with Hendricks at UFC 181, which he won by split decision to capture the welterweight title. The 33-year-old does not have a subtle fighting style, ending 20 of his 26 career wins by knockout.
Condit can be as fun and exciting as any fighter in UFC, but that style leaves him open to attacks. He lost three of four bouts from Nov. 2012 through Mar. 2014, suffering a torn ACL against Tyron Woodley at UFC 171. The former interim welterweight champ got an impressive win over Thiago Alves in his return last May to earn this shot at the title.
| Main Card | Bout | Prediction |
| Welterweight Championship | Robbie Lawler (c) vs. Carlos Condit | Lawler via 4th-Round TKO |
| Heavyweight | Stipe Miocic vs. Andrei Arlovski | Arlovski via 2nd-Round TKO |
| Welterweight | Albert Tumenov vs. Lorenz Larkin | Tumenov via 2nd-Round KO |
| Featherweight | Diego Brandao vs. Brian Ortega | Ortega via unanimous decision |
| Lightweight | Abel Trujillo vs. Tony Sims | Sims via split decision |
| Preliminary Card (FS1) | Bout | Prediction |
| Bantamweight | Michael McDonald vs. Masanori Kanehara | McDonald via 2nd-Round submission |
| Welterweight | Kyle Noke vs. Alex Morono | Noke via unanimous decision |
| Women's Strawweight | Justine Kish vs. Nina Ansaroff | Kish via split decision |
| Lightweight | Drew Dober vs. Scott Holtzman | Holtzman via unanimous decision |
| Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass) | Bout | Prediction |
| Lightweight | Dustin Poirier vs. Joseph Duffy | Duffy via 1st-round submission |
| Bantamweight | Joe Soto vs. Michinori Tanaka | Tanaka via unanimous decision |
| Welterweight | Edgar Garcia vs. Sheldon Westcott | Garcia via 1st-round TKO |
Source: UFC.com
Main Event Preview
Condit has changed his style with age. The 31-year-old used to be a submission specialist, but he has not won a bout by making an opponent tap out since Feb. 2008 in his fourth fight with World Extreme Cagefighting.
There's perhaps a reason for Condit's shift in style because he's not a great takedown fighter, especially compared to Lawler's all-around style.
| Lawler | Stat | Condit |
| 0.89 | Takedown Avg. | 0.66 |
| 68% | Takedown Accuracy | 52.94% |
| 67.33% | Takedowns Defended | 39.78% |
Source: UFC.com
Nothing about the way either competitor attacks anymore suggests this fight will end with a submission, though Lawler would get the edge if things do end up on the ground.
Condit has taken notice of what Lawler has been doing during his four-fight winning streak, telling reporters (per Dave Doyle of MMAFighting.com) Lawler is more dangerous than UFC's most famous welterweight.
"Georges, he wasn't as dangerous but he did have his aura about him," Condit said. "He had this mystique. Robbie not so much, but he's the more dangerous fighter."
Georges St-Pierre wasn't necessarily a fighter who scared opponents. He dominated for six years through precision and technique before taking a leave of absence in Dec. 2013. Lawler is not afraid to throw a superman punch or flying knee, though he's hardly a loose cannon in the Octagon.
In particular, Lawler is able to land significant strikes as well as anyone in mixed martial arts. According to Jeff Wagenheim of Sports Illustrated, citing FightMetric stats, Lawler has landed 723 significant strikes in his career (sixth-most among UFC welterweights ever).
One notable difference between the two fighters, as noted by ESPN.com's Brett Okamoto, is the way they go about attacking on offense even though both are stand-up specialists.
"Condit is a medley of offense, but when he finds something effective he'll pour it on (i.e. leg kicks against Nick Diaz, standing elbows against Thiago Alves)," Okamoto wrote. "Lawler is a good enough fighter to make in-fight adjustments though, so Condit will need every bit of his versatility."
That "medly of offense" is something that can hurt Condit because there's a reckless quality to him, which helps explain why he is just 2-3 in his last five bouts despite having as much raw talent as anyone in the welterweight division.
Lawler is a safer fighter than Condit in a lot of ways, but he's also going to come after anyone who stands in his way with a heavy barrage of punches that bring enough power to knock even the most strong-jawed opponent out.
Main Event Prediction
Condit is the kind of fighter who is hard to bet against, even when he's going through a fallow period, because all he has to do is land one of those big strikes that everyone knows is coming to score a knockout.
A puncher's chance is the greatest equalizer in combat sport because knockouts can happen in the blink of an eye. Just ask Jose Aldo after he took a shot from Conor McGregor at UFC 194.
Yet there's something about the way Condit fights, combined with his lack of activity over the last 21 months (two rounds), that makes Lawler more than just a favorite.
Lawler is an underrated champion because there's no bombast outside of the Octagon. He's just a fighter who takes care of his business and goes home. Lather, rinse, repeat. The formula will continue on Saturday night.
Lawler wins via fourth-round TKO (Punches)
