LAS VEGAS – It's difficult on so many levels to separate myth from reality when it comes to Conor McGregor.
McGregor will fight champion Jose Aldo for the featherweight title in the main event of UFC 189 on July 11 at the MGM Grand in small part because of his five consecutive wins without a loss in the promotion. It's largely, however, because of his brilliance as a marketer that he's gotten the title fight.
One can fairly say that the outspoken Irishman has literally talked his way to the top, though that would ignore his athletic accomplishments.
He won the Cage Warriors title at both featherweight and lightweight, earning him his 2013 promotion to the UFC. That feat alone proves he can fight to some degree.
And with each succeeding win in the UFC – against Marcus Brimage, Max Holloway, Diego Brandao, Dustin Poirier and Dennis Siver – he's answered a few more questions about his ability at the highest level.
In his five fights, he's won Knockout of the Night once and Performance of the Night three times. In his only UFC bout in which he didn't receive a fight-night bonus, he severely injured his knee in the first round of his bout with Holloway and still went on to win a clear decision.
So while some of his critics howled at the level of opposition he's had before getting a title shot, it's not as if he's done nothing. He has performed at a high level each time out in the UFC, and five wins in a row is a major accomplishment.
There have been 26 fighters who have won seven or more UFC bouts in a row, according to FightMatrix. Of those, 21 of them were champions or fought for the title (or in the case of Donald Cerrone, will fight for the belt in his next outing).
So at the very least, it's safe to say that winning five UFC fights in a row is a significant achievement for an athlete and that it at least puts the fighter in the conversation for a title shot, even though it doesn't guarantee one.
UFC 189 is one of the few cards in the promotion's history that is expected to threaten, or surpass, 1 million pay-per-view sales. The UFC does not release its pay-per-view sales numbers, but president Dana White has confirmed that UFC 100 is the best-selling card in company history. Estimates are that the show sold between 1.25 million and 1.5 million.
If the show comes anywhere close to 1 million sales, it will be a testament to McGregor's star power. Though UFC 189 is one of the deeper and more appealing cards of the year, there is no one else on it who is an established pay-per-view draw.
For this card to reach the kind of numbers White suggests it might, it largely falls on McGregor's shoulders to get the word out. Aldo, despite being one of the great fighters in the history of the sport, is not a big pay-per-view seller, and he makes very little effort to promote in the U.S., where the majority of sales come from.
Neither champion Robbie Lawler nor challenger Rory MacDonald, who meet for the welterweight belt in the co-main event, are notable sellers.
It's virtually impossible to predict what will make one show a hit on pay-per-view and another a dud, and much of the time it doesn't have a lot to do with the perceived quality of the matches.
But an overwhelming amount of media coverage, particularly mainstream media coverage, always makes a massive difference.
Nowhere was that better illustrated than in the boxing match between Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao on May 2. That fight did a record 4.4 million pay-per-view sales, smashing the existing mark of 2.5 million set by Mayweather and Oscar De La Hoya in 2007 by 76 percent.
The fight had Super Bowl- or Final Four-type media coverage. Beginning in 2009 and continuing for nearly six years, the boxing media regularly reported on the possibility of Mayweather facing Pacquiao. Whenever Mayweather had a fight slated, he'd invariably be asked about Pacquiao. When Pacquiao was about to step into the ring, he was quizzed about Mayweather.
They were household names to even the most casual of sports fans. For the two-plus months of the fight's build-up, their names were mentioned in mainstream news media virtually every day, after almost six years of regular coverage.
The result of that was the kind of intense coverage that guaranteed a massive pay-per-view buy.
Now, if UFC 189 still featured Lawler-MacDonald in the co-main with Aldo defending his belt against either of the last two men he faced, Chad Mendes or Ricardo Lamas, it's almost certain that White wouldn't be predicting sales of 1 million despite it being a hardcore fan's dream card.
The difference is McGregor, and his ability to generate buzz beyond the demographic of the typical UFC buyer.
Aldo is injured, though, and his status for fight night is in question, though the show will go on. Aldo suffered either a broken rib, or a bruised rib, depending upon whether one believes Aldo coach Andre Pederneiras or the UFC.
In either event, Aldo's status is shaky enough that the UFC has already announced that Mendes will replace him if he can't go. A potential McGregor-Mendes fight would be for the interim featherweight title.
Uncertainty always hurts pay-per-views. And all of the talk about Aldo's injury can't help, even though the UFC has guaranteed the card will go on with or without Aldo.
If McGregor were the one who was injured, the card would have almost assuredly been postponed.
There are already extraordinary demands on McGregor's time, and he's not going to be able to provide the mainstream media the kind of access that Mayweather did before the Pacquiao fight.
Additionally, not only did Pacquiao also grant extraordinary access to the media, but his trainer, Freddie Roach, also was readily available and was the topic of much conversation before the bout.
So when one wrote about Roach, it was a story about Mayweather-Pacquiao. Pederneiras and McGregor coach John Kavanagh will not garner the kind of notice before the fight that Roach did.
That puts the burden on McGregor to sell, and in some ways sets him up to fail.
If the show only does 800,000 sales, it will be perceived as a failure because of the expectations.
But if it does 800,000, McGregor should be hailed. It will be an extraordinary accomplishment and would cement him as the sport's biggest attraction.
McGregor's work over the next 12 days, though, is going to say quite a bit about the faith UFC management has placed him in as a high-level attraction.
He's stepped up to the challenge every time so far. His bout against Siver in January represented the highest ratings for a televised MMA fight since 2009.
If that translates to PPV success, Aldo ought to bow down to McGregor regardless of how the fight turns out.
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