Donald Cerrone and Eddie Alvarez are going to get in the Octagon on Saturday night. They’re going to fight.
It is probably going to be awesome. I never want to pull the Mike Goldberg/Joe Rogan jinx and say "there is no way this fight wil be boring" or "there is no way this one will go to the judges." Because when you say those sorts of things, you guarantee two things: 1. That it will be the most boring fight you have ever seen and 2. That it will certainly go to the judges' scorecards.
I don't want to be that jinx. Not for Alvarez and Cerrone. I've been looking forward to this fight for far too long.
So instead, I'll just say I think it's going to be a great fight. It'll probably be the fight of the night, and I will live in forever happy bliss with my memories of the time when two of the more exciting fighters in the world got in the Octagon and, in the words of my Bleacher Report colleague Chad Dundas, did the damn thing.
But here is what I do know: The winner of this fight is the next No. 1 contender for the UFC lightweight championship.
I have not been told this by anyone at the UFC. It's just a gut feeling. I would also like to preface this gut feeling by telling you my gut feeling is often wrong. That's why I don't make public predictions on fight results anymore; my gut is often wrong and, for the most part, I am the absolute worst at picking fights. I listen to my gut becaue that's what you're supposed to do. My gut is just wrong most of the time.
So I don't know for sure that the winner of Alvarez and Cerrone will move on to fight the winner of Anthony Pettis vs. Gilbert Melendez, but I think they should. I think the winner will be deserving. Cerrone certainly will be; he has four wins in a row, and all of them (except Adriano Martins, of course) are tough, durable name fighters. He puts on thrilling bouts every time he steps in the cage. He's a fan favorite.
In short, he has all the tools needed to be a UFC title contender, and a popular one, to boot. And if he beats Alvarez, he'll have a former Bellator champion notched into his belt, giving him instant credibility in a way that beating Adriano Martins (sorry, Adriano!) does not.
And there is no question Alvarez should jump the line of UFC contenders with a win over Cerrone. He's the former Bellator champion and probably would've earned a title shot with a single win back when the UFC originally offered Alvarez a contract, back before Bjorn Rebney made it his personal mission to make everyone in mixed martial arts despise him. There is no reason that is not the case today, in 2014, and all Alvarez should have to do is put Cerrone down for the count in order to earn it.
Who is winning this fight?
That's easier said than done, of course. This is not a gimme fight for Alvarez. He has a chance to show off his skills, but so does Cerrone. At the moment, the MGM Grand sportsbook has the fight listed as a pick 'em. It is a closely contested bout between two of the best lightweights in the world.
And, apologies to Khabib Nurmagomedov and everyone else who feels they can stake a claim to a title shot, but nobody deserves it more than Alvarez and Cerrone. And nobody will deserve it more after one of them has their hand raised on Saturday night.
