UFC 163 preview: Chan Sung Jung's uphill battle against champ Jose Aldo

Featherweight Chan Sung Jung is just the kind of exciting matchup for UFC champ Jose Aldo that Anthony Pettis would have been had a meniscus tear not scrapped his appearance at UFC 163.

But Jung and Pettis are far apart in the way they dole out violence in the cage, and that’s why Aldo is such a heavy favorite leading into Saturday’s event, which takes place at HSBC Arena in Rio de Janeiro.

Aldo (22-1 MMA, 4-0 UFC) is as big as an 8-1 favorite heading into his fight with Jung (13-3 MMA, 3-0 UFC), which headlines the pay-per-view card following prelims on FX and Facebook. When the champ was scheduled to fight Pettis, he wasn’t even in 2-1 territory.

Although it’s not fair to predict a fight entirely based on the whims of the betting public, the disparity between the first and second lines reflect an easily observable different between Pettis and Jung. And that counts for something.

Pettis, a protege of kickboxer-turned-MMA-fighter Duke Roufus, measures out his attacks in a way that’s fitting of a seasoned striker. He includes defense with his offense. He takes risks, and big ones, but they’re calculated. When he attempts his jumping kicks or knees, he’s timed them at moments where his opponents are on their heels.

That’s why Pettis got away leaping off the cage to kick Benson Hendrson (whom he’s now scheduled to rematch later this month at UFC 164) in the WEC and to knee Donald Cerrone in the UFC.

Jung, who’s trained with Korean Top Team, isn’t exactly a loose cannon, but he tends to let his emotions get the better of him and swing for the fences. Indeed, it’s part of what makes him a suitable replacement for Pettis, and it gives him an advantage if his opponent plays along.

“If” is the operative word. Jung very well could be the one to draw Aldo into a firefight, but it’s not likely. Aldo is capable of taking down aggressive strikers, as he did with Mark Hominick when it got too hot upstairs at UFC 129 (and he was tired from a nasty weight cut). He’s also capable of measuring range and delivering either a slow and methodical demise for his opponents or fast and devastating counters.

If Jung hopes to catch Aldo by surprise with a twister submission, as he did with Leonard Garcia, he could find himself disappointed. Aldo is a competent defensive grappler and wouldn’t allow himself to be held down by Frankie Edgar at UFC 156.

It’s just a tough night for Jung any way you break down the fight, and it’s made tougher by a year-plus layoff that will force him to battle cobwebs in real time against one of the world’s best.

Overall, though, Jung does well, Aldo does measurably better, and the champ is patient, unlike the challenger.

Davis needs to crack distance code against Machida enigma

Most with a passing knowledge of Phil Davis (11-1 MMA, 7-1 UFC) and his skills will say that he needs to take Lyoto Machida (19-3 MMA, 11-3 UFC) to the mat in UFC 163's co-main event. They might be right, but if it were that simple, “The Dragon” would have spent more time on his back in his UFC career.

Machida has faced plenty of great wrestlers, MMA and otherwise. But few have been able to corner him long enough to grab him and put him on the mat. His biggest asset, unsurprisingly, his is his ability to jump in range, strike and retreat before he can be countered in any meaningful way. Davis, of course, needs to cut off the cage and force Machida to fight in close. But he might be just as well served by using his reach to play his own hit-and-run attack.

With five inches of reach on the ex-champ, Davis can afford to hang back and snipe. It will expose him to a few body kicks, but he may be able to use those to close the distance.

The times that Machida doesn’t fare well is when his rhythm is thrown off by his opponent. Champ Jon Jones did a perfect job of disrupting his patterns en route to a submission victory at UFC 140, and Mauricio “Shogun” Rua quickly found the timing to meet him head-on at UFC 128. Davis might not have the striking skills of either, but he might not need to if he’s staying active.

For Davis, it’s a huge opportunity to steal the thunder of Machida, who seems stuck in limbo after turning down a rematch with Jones at UFC 152 and winning a lackluster fight against Dan Henderson at UFC 157. For Machida, it’s a matter of setting up Davis and keeping on his bicycle to avoid the takedown. But the fight won’t simply be determined by whether Davis can wrestle effectively.

Other main card bouts

Cezar Ferreira (5-2 MMA, 1-0 UFC) vs. Thiago Santos (8-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC): “The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil” winner Cezar Ferreira was tentative, yet dominant, in winning the reality show’s middleweight tournament in June 2012. Now, more than a year after he outpointed finalist Sergio Moraes in the final, the Vitor Belfort protege returns to the cage to meet newcomer Thiago “Marreta” Santos, who’s been bested just once in his relatively young career. Even before Santos replaced Clint Hester, the matchup is something to build Ferreira as talented beyond “TUF” by giving him similarly less-experienced opponents. Santos clearly fits the bill, though not much is known about him. That would mean Ferreira is in for an easy night, or a rude awakening.

Tom Watson (16-5 MMA, 1-1 UFC) vs. Thales Leites (20-4 MMA, 5-3 UFC): Onetime UFC middleweight title challenger Thales Leites returns to the octagon after a four-year stint on the regional circuit, where he went 6-1 against credible competition. Although the most memorable fight of his first tour of UFC duty was a horrifically dull title shot against then-champ Anderson Silva in 2009, he’s a well-rounded fighter who could present problems for anyone in the division. The question now is whether he still has the motivation and physical ability to make another run at the title. He gets a good opponent in Watson, who tends to grind down his opponents while swinging for the fences. This should be an exciting bout.

John Lineker (21-6 MMA, 2-1 UFC) vs. Jose Maria (33-3 MMA, 0-0 UFC): Flyweight newcomer Maria steps in on short notice to meet Lineker, who, after management issues and a lackluster debut, is back on track with two straight wins. Not much is known about Maria, but he’s got one of those records that makes you take notice. While he does have a loss to top-tier flyweight Jussier Formiga, he hasn’t been beaten in four years, which should give him the confidence to try to submit the hard-swinging Lineker.

UFC 163's full card includes:

MAIN CARD (Pay-per-view, 10 p.m. ET)

• Jose Aldo vs. Chan Sung Jung – for featherweight title
• Phil Davis vs. Lyoto Machida
• Cezar Ferreira vs. Thiago “Marreta” Santos
• Thales Leites vs. Tom Watson
• John Lineker vs. Jose Maria

PRELIMINARY CARD (FX, 8 p.m. ET)

• Vinny Magalhaes vs. Anthony Perosh
• Sheila Gaff vs. Amanda Nunes
• Neil Magny vs. Sergio Moraes
• Ian McCall vs. Iliarde Santos

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook, 6:30 p.m. ET)

• Josh Clopton vs. Rani Yahya
• Francimar Barroso vs. Ednaldo Oliveira
• Viscardi Andrade vs. Bristol Marunde

For more on UFC 163, stay tuned to the UFC Rumors section of the site.