UFC 161 preview: Can Rashad Evans get out of his own way to beat Dan Henderson?

Add up everything you know and have heard about Rashad Evans (17-3-1 MMA, 12-3-1 UFC) and Dan Henderson (29-9 MMA, 6-3 UFC) in advance of UFC 161, and guess which one has the richer internal life.

If you answered Evans, you’re right. The former champ and psychology major is far more susceptible to swings in sentiment than his former Olympian counterpart, and that could be as big a factor as any in deciding whether the winner of a Saturday headliner moves on to a future title shot – or hits the glass ceiling.

The light heavyweights top Saturday’s event at MTS Centre in Winnipeg. The pay-per-view main card (10 p.m. ET) follows prelims on FX (8 p.m. ET) and Facebook (7 p.m. ET).

While neither fighter has been promised the No. 1 contender position with a win, UFC President Dana White has said the loser of the bout will have a tough time ever being considered for the slot.

That bumps up the pressure for both veterans, and Evans’ recent history gives him a big hurdle to overcome in order to deliver against Henderson. Plus, it’s not the first time he’s faced it.

In his most recent outing, “The Ultimate Fighter 2? winner said he couldn’t pull the trigger against Antonio Rogerio Nogueira at UFC 156 and froze. Despite being aware of his state, he said he felt powerless to change course, and he left the octagon with a second consecutive loss for the first time in his career.

But Evans has felt out of step before. Prior to his fight against Lyoto Machida at UFC 98, where he lost his title and was knocked unconscious for the first time, he spoke about sitting in the locker room and feeling an absence of motivation for his octagon walk.

Evans clearly is a talented fighter when he’s firing on all cylinders, but he’s often spoken about the stultifying pressure that comes with competing at the upper echelons of the sport. He’s done so again in advance of Saturday’s fight, and one can’t help wondering whether those demons again hover over him against Henderson, who’s his polar opposite in character.

“Hendo,” a former two-title PRIDE champion and two-time UFC title challenger, is almost incapable of betraying nerves or emotion when it comes to big opportunities. He’s about as uncomplicated as competitors get, mostly because he’s been competing his entire life.

While there’s no doubt that he would like to get a title shot after losing multiple opportunities for a third crack at a UFC belt, Henderson seems more interested in washing the bad taste out of his mouth after a lackluster fight with Machida at UFC 157 that resulted in a decision loss.

At 42 years old, Henderson is far closer to the end of his career than Evans, and yet no one would question whether he’ll approach the fight with the same urgency as any other. In fighting as well as temperament, he is simple in his strategy, which is to say he looks to land his lethal right hand at all times.

That gives Evans an easier opponent to key off of when the two meet in the center of the cage. In previous bouts with big punchers such as Thiago Silva and Quinton Jackson, he’s used his wrestling to stuff them against the cage and grind out a decision. The very same could be true for Henderson, whose age and mileage have affected his speed and explosiveness.

In his octagon appearances, Evans has landed twice the takedowns as Henderson. That’s a direct reflection of the “H-Bomb” that dominates the older fighter’s game. The investment gives him better stats than Evans in striking.

However, Evans’ quickness is likely to be the deciding factor in exchanges, whether they’re on the feet or on the mat. Unless caught with a big right hand, he’s going to be able to decide the range of the fight far more easily.

But again, that’s if “Suga” is at his best. Henderson is a durable fighter who can take punches to give them, and he’s patient enough to seize on the right moment to strike. It’s Evans’ fight to lose, according to betting lines that have him as a slight favorite. But not by much.

Other UFC 161 main-card bouts

Stipe Miocic (9-1 MMA, 3-1 UFC) vs. Roy Nelson (19-7 MMA, 6-3 UFC): This heavyweight bout was made the co-main event after light heavyweight Antonio Rogerio Nogueira withdrew from a fight with Mauricio Rua. Nelson serves the final obligation of his current UFC contract against the far less experienced Miocic. It’s a fight that, by all indications, Nelson should win if he’s coming into the octagon healthy. Recent knockout wins over Dave Herman, Matt Mitrione and Cheick Kongo have put his knockout power on display, and his top game on the ground is formidable. Miocic, however, shouldn’t be counted out in two key areas: speed and wrestling. The younger fighter could out-hustle the veteran in striking exchanges if he manages to avoid bombs, and repeatedly putting Nelson on his back is a sure way to win the fight on points. But if Nelson is able to defend the takedown, it’s likely a matter of time before he can connect with the punch that alters the fight.

Ryan Jimmo (17-2 MMA, 1-1 UFC) vs. Igor Pokrajac (25-9 MMA, 4-4 UFC): Both light heavyweights look to return to the winner’s column after recent losses. Jimmo, who was an early cut on “The Ultimate Fighter 8,” said an injury marred his previous fight against James Te Huna. He’ll get a chance to live up to the hype he generated with a seven-second knockout of Anthony Perosh in his debut, but he won’t have it easy against Pokrajac, who boasts far more high-level competition in the UFC.

Alexis Davis (13-5 MMA, 0-0 UFC) vs. Rosi Sexton (13-2 MMA, 0-0 UFC): The female bantamweights look to get in line for the next shot at bantamweight champ Ronda Rousey‘s belt as they both make their debut inside the octagon. Strikeforce veteran Davis comes into the fight with less cage rust, having competed under the Invicta FC banner in January. Sexton, meanwhile, hasn’t competed in a year after a fight this past fall was canceled. Davis primarily is known for her jiu-jitsu skills while Sexton is a wrestler. As strikers, they’re both still developing, though Davis’ toughness might carry the day if they choose to stand and trade. In all likelihood, though, this will be a ground fight.

Shawn Jordan (14-4 MMA, 2-1 UFC) vs. Pat Barry (8-5 MMA, 5-5 UFC): The middle-of-the-road heavyweights promise a slugfest, provided Jordan doesn’t replicate the wall-and-stall plan he used against Cheick Kongo. Barry should have the upper hand in striking, but he’s also been caught early by big punchers such as Lavar Johnson. Provided he can weather an early storm, he should be able to outlast Jordan or even rack up points on the ground.

The official UFC 161 card includes:

MAIN CARD (Pay-per-view, 10 p.m. ET)

• Rashad Evans vs. Dan Henderson
• Stipe Miocic vs. Roy Nelson
• Ryan Jimmo vs. Igor Pokrajac
• Alexis Davis vs. Rosi Sexton
• Pat Barry vs. Shawn Jordan

PRELIMINARY CARD (FX, 8 p.m. ET)

• Jake Shields vs. Tyron Woodley
• James Krause vs. Sam Stout
• Sean Pierson vs. Kenny Robertson
• Roland Delorme vs. Edwin Figueroa

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook, 7 p.m. ET)

• Mitch Clarke vs. John Maguire
• Yves Jabouin vs. Dustin Pague

For the latest on UFC 161, stay tuned to the UFC Rumors section of the site.