For the longest time, Jose Aldo ruled the featherweight division with the iron fist of a despot. Since then, everything has changed. Conor McGregor stands atop the heap, but no one’s quite sure if he is coming or going, and below him the division is in flux, with young talent flowing into the talent pool with designs on the king’s crown.
Over the weekend, Mexico’s Yair Rodriguez made another step toward establishing himself into the upper echelon of the division, topping Alex Caceres in a victory that was much wider than the official split-decision result indicated.
At just 23 years old, Rodriguez is an intriguing talent, a mix of athleticism, versatility and daring that has paired himself with one of MMA’s great coaching teams in Greg Jackson and Mike Winkeljohn. The hope is that his creativity combined with their coherent game-planning can lead to a polished finished product.
But he’ll have many obstacles ahead. The featherweight youth movement is booming. Aside from Rodriguez, there’s Max Holloway (24), Brian Ortega (25), Dooho Choi (25), Mirsad Bektic (25) and Charles Oliveira (26), all in the Top 15.
So who’s the best of these prospects? Joining me to discuss "The Question" is Bleacher Report MMA Lead Writer Chad Dundas.
Mike Chiappetta: In a strange way, I feel a bit conflicted about this abundance of young talent, mostly because featherweight has been one of the few divisions to have stability over the years. Recently, the changes in the UFC have been dizzying. Champions can’t seem to hold on to a belt, and the company was recently sold. So maybe it would be nice to keep familiar names like McGregor and Aldo at the top.
These kids are knocking on the castle door, though. All of them bring specific strengths and threats, but to start with Rodriguez, since his performance is fresh in mind, I see star power but have my doubts about his long-term title potential, mostly because his wildness appears bound to get him in trouble as he faces opponents who are more technically precise and unaffected by unorthodox methods.
Good luck spinning so many times against Aldo without getting your legs chopped down, or against Edgar without getting your back mashed into the mat.
Basically, you get the feeling Rodriguez is being flashy for no rhyme or reason, and while it’s fun to watch, it’s a tactic with too much risk attached for continued long-term success. Rodriguez would be wise to find a happy medium, but with such a quick move up the rankings—he’s currently No. 13—he’s running out of time to make adjustments before he reaches the division’s upper echelon.
Chad Dundas: It's amazing how far the featherweight division has come since the introduction of Conor McGregor back in 2013. The 145-pound class had long been a favorite of hardcore fans—especially those of us lucky enough to remember it back in the old WEC days—but under Aldo’s long, dominant leadership it had struggled to find a foothold with a larger audience.
A few short years later, it’s arguably the most interesting division in the entire UFC, and with this crop of young talent now coming into its own, it might just have the brightest future, too.
For the moment, I’m inclined to agree with you about Rodriguez, Mike. I love the kid’s flash and marvel at his potential, but he also feels like a really talented rookie race car driver who has yet to actually pass his driver’s test. He can floor it and go from 0-60 in three seconds—but can he parallel park?
Frankly, the wattage of Rodriguez’s future may well depend on how the UFC treats him. He could turn out to be the linchpin to its planned expansion into the fight-friendly Mexican market. If that’s the case, then I think he’ll get the McGregor treatment and get matched against three or four more hand-picked fall guys before vaulting into a high-profile title fight.
At some point, though, someone will suffocate the glitzy, long-range offense and force him into a dogfight. When that happens, Rodriguez will need to prove he has the grappling and boxing fundamentals to back up the sizzle. Especially now that most—if not all—of his fights will likely be five-round main events, his margin for error might be slim.
Until Rodriguez proves his style can find succees at the highest level, I still think Max Holloway is the bluest of the blue-chip featherweight prospects.
Do you agree?
Mike: Ranked No. 3, Holloway is a compelling talent and is definitely the closest toward contending for a championship, but as for the top blue-chip prospect, I will cast my vote for the forgotten man in the group, Mirsad Bektic, who has been out for over a year after a knee injury that required surgery.
After watching him compete in the UFC a few times, he has clearly showcased a complete game that is built to excel in today's dynamic sport. Bektic has power, speed and athleticism, as well as a bully mentality that will serve him well as he moves onward and upward.
He has a powerful wrestling game that will allow him to control where fights are contested, but he's also quite proficient at every other element of the game and blends it all together, making him a danger in all facets. This isn't something that the rest of the group of prospects can claim. Rodriguez’s wrestling isn’t a threat in any meaningful way. Choi is still green and full of question marks. Ortega is way too content fighting off his back. Oliveira has no power.
I will acknowledge that Holloway has the least amount of holes of the group; he is currently closest to a finished product. Still, Bektic has the highest ceiling. He’s aggressive but not reckless; powerful but not sloppy. Right now, his biggest problem is his health, but he recently told MMA Junkie Radio he expects to be back around November.
I’m open to an argument I’m wrong. Chad, tell me why Holloway is a better championship threat.
Chad: I guess I'm a sucker for seeing a fighter prove it at the top level. Perhaps that invalidates the whole idea of being a “prospect," but to me it's impossible to overlook Holloway's nine-fight win streak built over the course of two-and-a-half years and over an increasingly talented gauntlet of competition.
Saying Holloway looks like a handful for anybody in the division right now is just easier for me than trying to peer into my crystal ball and project where Rodriguez, Choi or Ortega will be in a few years. Does that mean I'm cheating the parameters of this discussion? Maybe. I can be a jerk like that.
Holloway is big and rangy for this division—5'11"—and has proved himself with recent wins over known commodities like Cub Swanson, Jeremy Stephens and former title challenger Ricardo Lamas. His striking is fearsome, and he's athletic enough to compete with the top of the division.
You know what else I like about him? He seems to have a championship mentality. Back-to-back losses in 2013—the second one to current champ McGregor—seemed only to push him to work even harder. That's the kind of mental approach you have to have to compete in a sport as wild and unforgiving as this.
But I digress. How about the rest of this crop, Mike? Which one of these also rans ultimately soars the highest?
Mike: I feel like you took the easy way out here, partner. But sometimes, the easy way is the best way. It’s true, Holloway is a stud, and given his youth, is likely to get even better than he is now. Still, I just can’t shake the feeling that there is some missing piece that may derail him. Perhaps I’m overly influenced by his early losses ahead of his current wins.
Either way, he remains infinitely fun to watch, and in some ways, that is the hallmark of this crop of featherweight talent. Oliveira is like a jiu-jitsu thrill-seeker, Ortega loves to skirt the line between success and disaster, Choi and Rodriguez are action junkies, and Bektic is a mauler. And we haven’t even mentioned 25-year-old Teruto Ishihara, who packs brashness, firepower and over-the-top (and occasionally over-the-line) charisma into his appearances.
Which man will go the furthest remains up for debate, but even if Chad and I disagree on the leader of the youth vanguard, if there's one thing we can agree upon, it’s that the featherweight division is in great and exciting hands.
