At UFC Fight Night 50 on Friday, Ronaldo Souza and Gegard Mousasi will meet in a bout that could determine the next 185-pound title challenger.
Since joining the UFC roster, Souza has posted a 3-0 record, besting Francis Carmont, Yushin Okami and Chris Camozzi. Dating back to his Strikeforce days, the Brazilian has won six consecutive fights, making him one of the hottest middleweights around right now.
Only one bout removed from a loss to Lyoto Machida, Mousasi doesn't have as much momentum going. However, he looked as good as ever in his most recent outing, which ended in a submission win over Mark Munoz during the opening round.
In September 2008, Souza and Mousasi met under the Dream banner. Mousasi won that bout with an upkick in the first stanza, but much has changed since then.
Here is a look at the keys to victory for both competitors heading into this highly anticipated rematch.
Ronaldo Souza: Stick to Grappling and Minimize Risks on Top
With two knockouts in his past five appearances, Souza has no doubt gained confidence in his striking. That's a good thing, but he can't afford to be overconfident in his stand-up during this matchup.
Who will win?
Mousasi is still a step or two above the Brazilian in that area. It is clear to pretty much everyone that Souza's best chance to win on Friday will be on the ground, as is the case in basically all of Jacare's bouts.
An elite grappler, Souza also has solid wrestling. He scored five takedowns in a close fight with former Strikeforce champion Luke Rockhold and four in a submission win over UFC welterweight title challenger Robbie Lawler. Considering Mousasi has been taken down by Ilir Latifi, Souza should be able to get this fight to the ground.
While Souza has the ability to submit any man in the world, he should play it somewhat safe when in the top position against Mousasi. As evidenced by his previous upkick win over Souza, Mousasi can be tricky off his back and hasn't been submitted since August 2006. More importantly, Souza will want to spend as much time on top as possible and avoid giving Mousasi opportunities to stand.
It's not that Souza shouldn't try to finish, but he should be looking for positional submissions like rear-naked chokes and arm triangles rather than risking the top position with armbars and such.
Gegard Mousasi: Keep Distance with Jabs and Avoid All Takedowns
Remaining upright will be the key to Mousasi winning on Friday. The former Strikeforce and Dream champion is underrated on the ground, but he's not going to find much success there against Souza.
With one of the best jabs in MMA, Mousasi has the ability to keep Souza away from him. The question is: Can he do so over five rounds?
Eventually, unless he gets knocked out early, Souza is going to find a way to get inside against Mousasi. So, Mousasi needs to be prepared to shut down the Brazilian's takedown attempts when they do get through to his legs.
Mousasi did deny six takedowns against Munoz, so he'll look to continue that success against Souza. However, Mousasi did allow at least one takedown in three of his four bouts prior to meeting Munoz in May.
Did Mousasi's wrestling really take a big step forward against Munoz, or was it more a case of Munoz declining at 36 years old? We'll find out at UFC Fight Night 50, where Mousasi's takedown defense is going to be thoroughly tested by Souza.
