Mackenzie Dern's fight on Friday could not have gone much better. Darrion Caldwell's could not have gone much worse.
Even when the prospects are elite, as Dern and Caldwell both are, the issue is never certain in MMA. The diverging fortunes in Friday's results were just the latest reminders of that fact for fans, fighters and promotors.
The two competed at almost the exact same time. Caldwell, a national champion wrestler, faced Joe Taimanglo at Bellator 159 for a shot at Bellator champion Eduardo Dantas. Meanwhile, Dern, a world jiu-jitsu champion, made her pro MMA debut against fellow women's strawweight Kenia Rosas at Legacy FC 58.
The 23-year-old Dern used sensational grappling to dominate Rosas over three rounds, earning a runaway decision that saw the three judges hand out scores of 30-25, 30-26 and 30-27. The only thing that prevented a submission was Rosas' commendable toughness. She survived heavy ground-and-pound and several submission attempts, including a late armbar that appeared to hyperextend her elbow.
Mackenzie Dern vs Kenia Rosas #Legacy58 SHE SURVIVES! SHE SURVIVES! pic.twitter.com/bj4MhCGr17
— Zombie Prophet (@ZPGIFs) July 23, 2016
"I didn't hear a noise but it was backwards," Dern (1-0) told broadcaster Pat Miletich in the cage after the fight (h/t Guilherme Cruz of MMA Fighting). "She has some flexibility so that's maybe why they thought it was a good matchup. She punches really hard and I tried to punch hard too. I was glad I was able to take it to the ground all three rounds."
On the Bellator 159 main event, the tone wasn't quite so triumphant.
To no one's surprise, Caldwell used his wrestling prowess to get Taimanglo to the ground and control him. That skill set for the first two rounds illustrated why Caldwell was a massive -1500 favorite in the contest.
And then there was the third round.
Caldwell went for another takedown right off the bat, but barreled directly into a Taimanglo guillotine choke. Caldwell attempted to buck and power out of the hold, but to no avail. He tapped at nine seconds of the final round.
"I know I earned that number one spot against a tough opponent like Darrion," Taimanglo told broadcaster Jimmy Smith in the cage after the fight (h/t Luke Thomas of MMA Fighting). "He is blessed to be with his talent. I appreciate him coming in tonight. I know he was in line for a title, but you know, I gotta steal your thunder, bro."
After plowing through veteran Joe Warren in his previous fight, the stage was set for Caldwell to walk through Taimanglo and face Dantas in a high-profile title match.
Instead, Caldwell suffered what was, according to the odds and MMA analyst Luca Fury, one of the largest upset losses in MMA history.
Darrion Caldwell's #Bellator159 loss was the 5th biggest upset in MMA history according to the betting odds. Top 20: https://t.co/yHp3NaEGk6
— Fury's Fight Picks (@FurysFightPicks) July 23, 2016
It was the first defeat for the 28-year-old super prospect, who fell to 9-1 as a pro. Although he will surely fight again in Bellator and has plenty of winning still in front of him, this defeat has to be hard to stomach. It also is surely a bitter pill for Bellator officials, who now have a total unknown for a title challenger and one emphatically derailed prospect.
Just another night in MMA.
