The age-old saying of nothing ventured, nothing gained has its place in the MMA world. The unpredictable nature of the sport leaves open windows for those looking to take a risk. It's a sport that never ceases to surprise.
What fights are most revealing through the eyes of these prognosticators? Where is there unexpected value? Steven Rondina and Nathan McCarter take you through a few of the most compelling odds heading into Saturday’s gigantic event.
Nathan McCarter: Steven, there’s really nowhere else to begin but the main event. It’s the fight. What do you make of the odds?
Steven Rondina: I’m honestly surprised that Alvarez is such a narrow underdog at +145 (bet $100 to win $145), just based on how much bettors love McGregor as a -175 (bet $175 to win $100) favorite. I think that’s an accurate portrayal of either man’s likelihood to win (I’ve been waffling back and forth, personally but have leaned towards McGregor more frequently), and that has me looking to avoid a straight pick of the winner.
Nathan: If this weren’t the historic fight that it is, I’m not sure if the odds would be enough to captivate me on a straight moneyline. It’s a close fight, and the odds reflect that. That’s the brass tacks. Nothing stands out as being off-kilter or offering tremendous value.
There is another close fight on the card that has my attention as far as betting odds go, and that’s the welterweight meeting between Donald Cerrone, a -165 favorite, and Kelvin Gastelum, a +135 underdog.
Cerrone has looked sensational at 170. He’s on a three-fight win streak at his new weight, and each win saw him finish his opponent in a more spectacular fashion than the previous fight. Gastelum, on the other hand, has had a roller coaster ride during his UFC stint.
Gastelum looked to be a future contender during his early UFC run but then suffered through weight issues that drastically hurt his stock. He laid an egg against Neil Magny last November but returned to form against Johny Hendricks at UFC 200. Steven, is there value on Gastelum here?
Steven: I think that’s a fair line, but it’s definitely an intriguing one. Gastelum is a young, talented fighter who has fought consistently difficult competition and managed to succeed more often than not. He’s a fairly large welterweight, and if he can take Cerrone down or tie him up in the clinch, he’ll have a definite edge.
It’s also worth noting Cerrone hasn’t faced especially stiff competition at 170 yet. Patrick Cote and Rick Story are both solid, but neither is especially fearsome in any area of the cage, and both men are at fairly advanced points in their careers. Gastelum is probably going to be the biggest, strongest, hungriest fighter he has faced in the UFC. Gastelum winning, and in particular winning by decision, is an alluring bet.
Nathan: I concur, and also interesting is that a prop bet on Gastelum via submission is at +600. I’m not sure there is a play there, but I’m sure a few are looking at that with interested eyes. Cerrone has tapped before, and Gastelum isn't a slouch in that department.
What other fight piques your interest, Steven?
Steven: By far, the most alluring underdog on the card is Michael Johnson. He’s a +230 underdog as of this writing for his fight against Khabib Nurmagomedov, currently a -300 favorite, and that seems a little bit crazy to me.
For all the hype surrounding Nurmagomedov, he’s not really a known commodity. Johnson is, and at +230...well, I know I’m interested.
Nathan: I agree here. Johnson does all the little things well to be a credible threat to Nurmagomedov.
Nurmagomedov’s most notable win is against Rafael Dos Anjos. When you match Dos Anjos up against Johnson, you can see the disparity between the speed and athleticism. Those two factors make not just seeing value in the Blackzilian, but also picking him outright very enticing.
The oddmakers aren’t totally off their rocker. While Johnson sits at +230, Johnson by TKO is only at +525. Given Nurmagomedov’s durability, one might expect that number to be higher, but they obviously value Johnson’s recent win over Dustin Poirier where he got to showcase his hand speed.
Steven: Agreed across the board. Let’s bring this home with some brief discussion about the two title fights that landed outside the main event.
Strawweight champ Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz isn’t especially compelling. Jedrzejczyk is sitting at -400, which is steep enough that I wouldn’t want to put money down on her. Kowalkiewicz is +300, and that isn’t quite sweet enough to get a serious look from me.
The co-main event, welterweight champ Tyron Woodley vs. Stephen Thompson, though? That’s pretty interesting.
The champ is actually a decent underdog, sitting at +165. I’m definitely feeling good about Thompson’s chances, but Woodley isn’t easily knocked out, and he is the champion. He’ll likely have an edge if this one goes to the scorecards and, of course, there’s a strong chance that he catches Thompson before he can find his range and end it early.
Thoughts on the odds entering the UFC welterweight title this Saturday? #UFCNYC #UFC205 https://t.co/SViCGQMdf1
— #UFC205 (@ufc) November 10, 2016
Nathan: I wasn’t especially surprised by the odds for this fight, but I do think there’s value on Woodley.
Woodley has long been underappreciated even going back to his days in Strikeforce. His route to the UFC welterweight championship was filled with a who’s who of the top-tier competition, including Jake Shields, Josh Koscheck and Carlos Condit. It’s his inconsistency where I can see the oddsmakers being skeptical of his ability to defeat Thompson.
And it’s in that consistency where Thompson is riding high. Since losing to Matt Brown in 2012, Thompson has fixed the holes in his game and been a consistent force. It’s easy to buy in.
The problem I am having with crediting him as a -205 favorite is that Woodley is a cerebral fighter who is intent on remaining the champion. He’s not likely to get caught up in a striking exchange that will leave him knocked out cold, and he’ll be patient to close the distance. It could make this a relatively lackluster fight. The odds are accurate, but the value for the underdog is intriguing.
There are plenty of storylines to watch on Saturday, but the oddsmakers always find a way to make a fight more interesting. The ones we have highlighted here are just a few. Miesha Tate at a -170 favorite shows her value on the main card as well. Raquel Pennington is tough as nails but hasn't shown the ability to beat top-tier talent such as Tate.
UFC 205 brings you 13 fights in total where you will be tempted throughout. You going to take the venture? If so, hold onto your wallets.
Betting odds courtesy of OddsShark.com.
