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Ethan Brown 8-16-2008
I recently watched an interview with Frank Mir in which he briefly describes his upcoming fight with Nogueira and his advantages and Nog's disadvantages coming into this fight. He credits himself with being more explosive and I think that's obvious. I tend to look at submission experts within two categories: those that wait for an opening and those that only need one opening. Frank is in the latter category. He happens to be able to finish fights if offered the slightest opportunity. I think it comes from a dual clinch grappling/submission background (ex: Travis Lutter, Diego Sanchez, Aoki...), but back to Frank Mir being correct about explosiveness. In the same interview Frank talks about how Nog's epic battles, while maturing the fighter with experience, has left his body a trainwreck, and that Frank believes he's the fresher fighter. This may well be true, but I think there's an underlying consequence from these wars. Nogueira has won many of these epic fights and as such I believe he isn't as willing to risk a loss for a win to finish the fight earlier than later. I think he believes himself able to withstand the epic battle and to come out victorious that deep inside he's willing to sit on his heels a bit more than other fighters might. Do not get me wrong, I think Nog has excellent BJJ technique, but I do think that technique when not applied with fervor against a powerful and explosive opponent like Frank Mir will be inadequate in the face of one of these X factors. Explosiveness will win out the day.
Let's face it, this fight will most likely end on the ground. Both fighters think they have the advantage there. Mir's kicks might be better but Nog's hands are more precise. Whoever loses the fight on the feet, which I think will be Mir, will take it to the mat. And I can't help but put the winner's crown to the fighter who is more aggressive, which is Frank Mir.