Inside the numbers: UFC 174 is year's most competitive card

What will happen on Saturday night in Canada remains to be seen, but purely from a numbers standpoint, UFC 174 is the most competitive card of the calendar year so far – at least if you go by what the oddsmakers have to say.

Using a matrix in which a fighter getting 2-to-1 or better (-200) odds is considered a sizable favorite in a bout, Saturday’s pay-per-view has closer fights than any other UFC card in 2014. Only two of the 11 fights on the card have favorites going off at -200 or better as of Thursday early evening.

By comparison, the closest to that was UFC 169 in February. On that card, four of the 12 fights had prohibitive favorites, or 33 percent of the bouts on the card. UFC 174's percentage is just 18, and four of the nine fights that are close have what amount to pick’em odds.

At UFC 174, flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson currently is more than a 6-to-1 favorite (-650) against challenger Ali Bagautinov (+425) in the main event. Throughout his UFC and WEC career, Johnson has never been that big of a favorite. And Brazil’s Daniel Sarafian is a -380 favorite against Kiichi Kunimoto in the preliminary card’s featured fight.

UFC 174 takes place at Rogers Arena in Vancouver. The main card airs on pay-per-view (10 p.m. ET) following four prelims on FX (8 p.m. ET) and a pair of bouts on UFC Fight Pass (7 p.m. ET).

Notable close fights on Saturday include the co-main event welterweight bout between contenders Rory MacDonald (-105) and Tyron Woodley (-125), a women’s bantamweight fight between newcomers Elizabeth Phillips (-110) and Valerie Letourneau (-120) and the UFC Fight Pass bouts featuring Roland Delorme (-105) vs. Michinori Tanaka (-125) and Josh Shockley (-105) vs. Jason Saggo (-125).

UFC 174 is the promotion’s 20th card of the calendar year. Of those 20, 16 have had in excess of 50 percent of their fights featuring favorites of -200 or greater. Along with UFC 174 and UFC 169, UFC Fight Night 41 had 40 percent of its fights fall into the sizable favorites category, and the TUF China Finale had four of eight for 50 percent on the button.

More often than not, the number of sizable favorites on a card is north of 60 percent. The percentage of the 223 scheduled bouts to have favorites of -200 or more heading into UFC cards in 2014 is 62 percent.

Of course, the beauty of the sport is that, as most fighters will put on repeat in pre-bout interviews, odds are just a number. Big underdogs to buck the odds and win in recent events include T.J. Dillashaw, who beat heavy favorite Renan Barao to win the bantamweight title at UFC 173, and Johnny Eduardo, who knocked out 9-to-1 favorite Eddie Wineland at UFC Fight Night 40.

Take a look back at the UFC’s 2014 so far with how many fights on each card had solid favorites, and how many of those favorites suffered upset losses.

UFC Fight Night 34
Favorites of -200 or more: 6/10 (60 percent)
Jan. 4, Singapore: MMAjunkie staff picks
Favorites of -200 or more who lost: One (Royston Wee def. Dave Galera, -205)

UFC Fight Night 35
Favorites of -200 or more: 7/12 (58 percent)
Jan. 15, Duluth, Ga.: MMAjunkie staff picks
Favorites of -200 or more who lost: Three (Brad Tavares def. Lorenz Larkin, -300; Beneil Dariush def. Charlie Brenneman, -215; Louis Smolka def. Alptekin Ozkilic, -285)

UFC on FOX 10
Favorites of -200 or more: 9/11 (82 percent)
Jan. 25, Chicago: MMAjunkie staff picks
Favorites of -200 or more who lost: Three (Alex Caceres def. Sergio Pettis, -225; George Sullivan def. Mike Rhodes, -300; Nikita Krylov def. Walt Harris, -450)

UFC 169
Favorites of -200 or more: 4/12 (33 percent)
Feb. 1, Newark, N.J.: MMAjunkie staff picks
Favorites of -200 or more who lost: None

UFC Fight Night 36
Favorites of -200 or more: 7/12 (58 percent)
Feb. 15, Jaragua do Sul, Brazil: MMAjunkie staff picks
Favorites of -200 or more who lost: One (Ildemar Alcantara def. Albert Tumenov, -250)

UFC 170
Favorites of -200 or more: 8/11 (73 percent)
Feb. 22, Las Vegas: MMAjunkie staff picks
Favorites of -200 or more who lost: One (Ernest Chavez def. Yosdenis Cedeno, -340)

TUF China Finale
Favorites of -200 or more: 4/8 (50 percent)
March 1, Macau: MMAjunkie staff picks
Favorites of -200 or more who lost: Two (Lipeng Zhang def. Wang Sai, -300; Mark Eddiva def. Jumabieke Tuerxun, -400)

UFC Fight Night 37
Favorites of -200 or more: 6/10 (60 percent)
March 8, London: MMAjunkie staff picks
Favorites of -200 or more who lost: One (Claudio da Silva def. Brad Scott, -230)

UFC 171
Favorites of -200 or more: 7/13 (54 percent)
March 15, Dallas: MMAjunkie staff picks
Favorites of -200 or more who lost: One (Robert Whiteford def. Daniel Pineda, -225)

UFC Fight Night 38
Favorites of -200 or more: 8/11 (73 percent)
March 23, Natal, Brazil: MMAjunkie staff picks
Favorites of -200 or more who lost: Six (C.B. Dollaway def. Cezar Ferreira, -450; Fabio Maldonado def. Gian Villante, -340; Michel Prazeres def. Maribek Taisumov, -350; Thiago Santos def. Ronny Markes, -900; Jussier Formiga def. Scott Jorgensen, -200; Godofredo Pepey def. Noad Lahat, -350)

UFC Fight Night 39
Favorites of -200 or more: 5/8 (63 percent)
April 11, Abu Dhabi: MMAjunkie staff picks
Favorites of -200 or more who lost: One (Ramsey Nijem def. Beneil Dariush, -285)

TUF Nations Finale
Favorites of -200 or more: 10/13 (77 percent)
April 16, Quebec City: MMAjunkie staff picks
Favorites of -200 or more who lost: Two (Tim Kennedy def. Michael Bisping, -210; Patrick Cote def. Kyle Noke, -205)

UFC on FOX 11
Favorites of -200 or more: 8/13 (62 percent)
April 19, Orlando, Fla.: MMAjunkie staff picks
Favorites of -200 or more who lost: One (Fabricio Werdum def. Travis Browne, -240)

UFC 172
Favorites of -200 or more: 6/10 (60 percent)
April 26, Baltimore: MMAjunkie staff picks
Favorites of -200 or more who lost: One (Anthony Johnson def. Phil Davis, -235)

UFC Fight Night 40
Favorites of -200 or more: 10/13 (77 percent)
May 10, Cincinnati: MMAjunkie staff picks
Favorites of -200 or more who lost: Five (Matt Brown def. Erick Silva, -225; Daron Cruickshank def. Erik Koch, -350; Neil Magny def. Tim Means, -340; Zak Cummings def. Yan Cabral, -600; Johnny Eduardo def. Eddie Wineland, -900)

UFC 173
Favorites of -200 or more: 7/12 (58 percent)
May 24, Las Vegas: MMAjunkie staff picks
Favorites of -200 or more who lost: Four (T.J. Dillashaw def. Renan Barao, -850; James Krause def. Jamie Varner, -240; Mitch Clarke def. Al Iaquinta, -500; Vinc Pichel def. Anthony Njokuani, -385)

UFC Fight Night 41
Favorites of -200 or more: 4/10 (40 percent)
May 31, Berlin: MMAjunkie staff picks
Favorites of -200 or more who lost: One (Niklas Backstrom def. Tom Niinimaki, -265)

TUF Brazil 3 Finale
Favorites of -200 or more: 10/12 (83 percent)
May 31, Sao Paulo, Brazil: MMAjunkie staff picks
Favorites of -200 or more who lost: One (Robert Peralta def. Rony Jason, -335)

UFC Fight Night 42
Favorites of -200 or more: 6/11 (55 percent)
June 7, Albuquerque, N.M.: MMAjunkie staff picks
Favorites of -200 or more who lost: None

UFC 174
Favorites of -200 or more: 2/11 (18 percent)
June 14, Vancouver: MMAjunkie staff picks coming Friday
Favorites of -200 or more who lost: TBA

For more on UFC 174, stay tuned to the UFC Rumors section of the site.

(Pictured: Demetrious Johnson)