Brock Lesnar returned to MMA at UFC 200 after an absence of nearly five years and made his presence felt with an upset win over perennial contender Mark Hunt.
The WWE superstar and former heavyweight champion is still one of the biggest names in combat sports, and if he wants to fight in the UFC again, he probably will. "Brock Lesnar does what Brock Lesnar wants to do," he said at his personal post-fight press conference, and there's no reason to doubt him on that. (Warning: Video contains NSFW language.)
The heavyweight landscape has changed since Lesnar ruled the division back in 2010. Bleacher Report's Steven Rondina and Patrick Wyman take a look at how he matches up with the new elite.
Steven: Well, Patrick, Brock Lesnar graced us with his presence at UFC 200, and while I’m still a bit mad at him for his lame match with Dean Ambrose at WrestleMania 32, I can admit his performance was pretty darn good on Saturday. He exploded into takedowns, showed off his powerful ground game and took a clean unanimous decision win over a top-10 heavyweight in Hunt.
No, his cardio wasn’t astounding. Yes, he was a bit too respectful of Hunt’s punching power. But all in all, it’s hard to nitpick a win over a legitimate name after almost five years out of the sport.
While there are important questions lingering about whether Lesnar will, or even can, come back—which have been addressed well by our colleague Mike Chiappetta—let’s put those aside for a moment and just appreciate what we have. What do you think of Lesnar’s performance? Was he as good as he was back in his prime? Better? Worse?
Patrick: This was an unequivocally positive performance from Lesnar in the context of what happened the last couple of times he found himself in the Octagon. He looked like his physically overwhelming self, showcasing his shocking speed and ridiculous strength and put a beating on a credible top-10 fighter.
Despite coming off such a long layoff, the former champion looked like a more technically sound version of the fighter who ruled the division between 2008 and 2010. His timing on his takedown entries was improved, his striking mechanics looked much cleaner and his always-dangerous top game looked better than ever.
Lesnar had to know he couldn’t just blow through Hunt, who has always been an excellent defensive wrestler, with a simple double-leg takedown. Instead, he used patient feints and fakes to freeze Hunt in place and then picked his spots to shoot.
Rather than committing too hard to one takedown and trying to muscle through it, he used slick chains to patiently drag Hunt to the mat.
Most importantly, he didn’t panic when Hunt hit him, and he never lost his confidence. The Beast looked refreshed, rejuvenated and improved.
With all of that in mind, Steven, how do you think Lesnar stacks up with the 2016 version of the heavyweight division?
Steven: I definitely agree with you that Lesnar, somehow, looked technically better than he did even back in his prime. Maybe it’s because he was much more reserved in his striking, or maybe it’s because his entries were well-timed and explosive, but I feel incredibly bullish on his chances in any kind of long-term return.
It wasn’t perfect. His cardio didn’t look quite as good as it was back in the day, of course. He was huffing and puffing against Hunt after the first round, and that’s not ideal, even in the heavyweight division. But seeing him wait on Hunt to whiff a punch and then explode into a takedown attempt? Chills.
Ranking Lesnar strictly on his performance on Saturday, I’d put him clearly in the top 10. While I don’t rank fighters on strict MMA math, he steps over Hunt, who sits at No. 9 in the Bleacher Report MMA rankings. I could convince myself to put him even higher.
That said, looking over the top 10, there are some fights I could see him being a conqueror and some where he would be conquered. Which fighters stick out to you as his best matchups in the top 10?
Patrick: Despite the improvements in his striking and the increased craft in the setups for his takedowns, Lesnar isn’t a complete fighter. He has two outstanding dimensions to his game: his wrestling arsenal and his sublime top game. The latter sees him pass beautifully while maintaining effortless control and rain down vicious shots.
This means Lesnar’s matchups depend on whether his opponent could effectively stuff his takedowns and then make him pay on the feet or in the clinch. This is easier said than done—Hunt is a strong defensive wrestler, but Lesnar still got him down repeatedly—but it’s an effective basic principle.
Among the UFC’s elite heavyweights, then, Lesnar stands a great chance against the aging Josh Barnett, who recently conceded four takedowns to vastly inferior wrestler Roy Nelson, per FightMetric. Ben Rothwell has always been a mediocre defensive wrestler, though his power and striking acumen would be a concern.
Lesnar also matches up surprisingly well with recently deposed champion Fabricio Werdum. While an outstanding grappler with the submission skills to finish anyone in the division, he’s not a great wrestler. Even with a world-class guard, Werdum risks getting stuck underneath the Beast and eating blow after blow from those bucket-sized fists.
That’s what I see as the positive side for Lesnar. Did I miss anyone, Steven? And which fighters do you see as bad matchups for Lesnar?
Steven: In my mind, it comes down to three things. Are they at least somewhat athletic? Do they have great—not good—takedown defense? And do they have serious power in their hands?
If they only have one, they lose. If they have two out of three, it’s a toss-up. If they have all three, they should be able to decisively beat Lesnar.
Barnett is the only gimme in the top 10 for the reasons you discussed. He’s too slow, doesn’t have fearsome knockout power and would spend a long time on his back.
Andrei Arlovski, Rothwell and Travis Browne have the pop in their hands and the raw physical strength to give Lesnar trouble. That said, they lack the strong clinch work and bulletproof defensive wrestling to consistently apply those tools.
Now we’re entering top-five territory. As you said, Werdum vs. Lesnar would be a tightrope walk for both men. Could Werdum sweep Lesnar into a kimura or lock up a triangle? Definitely. Could Lesnar hold Werdum’s arm down and turn his face into ground beef? Also definitely.
I’ll probably anger some folks with this, but I’d actually put money down on Lesnar to beat Junior Dos Santos. Perhaps his standing in my mind will forever be stained by his two lopsided losses to Cain Velasquez, but I can’t shake the feeling he would get worked along the cage and taken down for the majority of the fight.
I’m not saying it would be a UFC 155-style massacre, but I think Lesnar would deliver something similar to what we saw at UFC 200.
As for the final three, Alistair Overeem, Velasquez and Stipe Miocic? I can’t see Lesnar beating any of them.
Patrick: I’m with you, Steven, on almost all of that. It’s not enough to be a great defender of takedowns; you have to be able to genuinely hurt Lesnar on the feet and have the raw athletic horsepower to keep up with him, even though he’s about to turn 39. Having the size and strength to confidently tie up with him doesn’t hurt, either.
The top of the heavyweight division belongs to Miocic, Velasquez, Dos Santos, Werdum and Overeem. Two of them, Velasquez and Overeem, have already flattened Lesnar in uncompetitive fights. We already touched on Werdum above.
The new champion, Miocic, shares far more in common with Velasquez and Overeem than he does with the likes of Barnett and Browne.
Where I part company with you is your evaluation of Dos Santos, and I have to ask, are you taking crazy pills? Is someone holding you a gun to your head, or is a beloved family pet in mortal danger? Blink twice if you require assistance.
It takes skilled pressure to force Junior to the fence and incredible cardio to either spam takedown attempts or grind him in the clinch, and Lesnar has neither of those attributes. Moreover, Dos Santos is tall enough to jab effectively with Lesnar and has the power and the volume to put a serious hurting on the American at range.
Lesnar exploited Hunt’s lack of height and need to set a deliberate pace. Hunt is 42 and can’t throw more than a few strikes in a minute without the risk of running out of gas; Lesnar’s constant feints and level changes further diminished his output. Dos Santos, by contrast, wouldn’t play into Lesnar’s desire for a slow-paced, measured fight.
We’ve discussed how Lesnar matches up with the rest of the division. Assuming he fights again, Steven, whom would you choose as his opponent? Which matchup makes the most sense for him?
Steven: Crazy pills? Between the two of us, guess who picked Lesnar to beat Hunt?
But seriously, it comes down to the UFC’s expectations for Lesnar and his availability going forward.
The UFC would be unwise to risk a legitimate contender such as Dos Santos or Werdum regardless of their chances. There also wouldn’t be any value for the promotion in feeding Lesnar somebody with long-term value such as Stefan Struve or Derrick Lewis. On the flip side, you can’t throw Lesnar in there with somebody who lacks name value or a complete bum.
In a perfect world, the UFC would put together the fight we’ve all craved since 2008: Lesnar vs. Fedor Emelianenko. Putting that fight together makes sense for all three parties, and it would do incredible numbers. Sure, there’s a chance Emelianenko would get disemboweled in the cage, but I don’t think any longtime fan would miss that matchup.
If we’re going to be realistic, though, they’d want someone with the same variables as Hunt: respected by fans, owner of an established body of work, far away from a title shot but still quite dangerous. The man who best fits that mold is Arlovski.
Patrick: Arlovski would be a good option. He has the name value, the cred as a former champion and longtime contender and is nearing the end of his long and illustrious career. After Fedor’s performance against Fabio Maldonado in June, I don’t want to see him anywhere near a monster such as Lesnar, though it makes solid business sense.
Browne, who seems unlikely to morph into contender material, is another viable option. He’s credible in that division without being enough of a contender to muddy the title picture.
For me, though, the pick has to be Barnett.
Like Arlovski, Barnett has the name value and the resume. He also has a background in professional wrestling and the promotional chops to hype the fight to the fullest as a respectable B-side.
To be honest, though, I don’t much care which fighter Lesnar goes up against as long as we see him back in the UFC again. There’s no matching the man’s sheer presence. He’s an attraction of the highest order, and in the era of the celebrity fighter, the promotion needs him.
