‘Fightnomics’ author Kuhn: Weidman still the value bet, Rousey finish a safe option

Despite much tighter betting lines, Chris Weidman is still the smart play for UFC 168, according to “Fightnomics” author Reed Kuhn.

Kuhn, a research fellow for official UFC stat provider FightMetric, said the champ’s rematch with deposed kingpin Anderson Silva is still a toss-up in terms of outcome. But several factors favor Weidman.

“He’s got a huge youth advantage, and if it stays standing, this is a battle of chance because he’s much younger, he’s clean, (and) he’s never had a knockout (loss),” Kuhn, whose book recently hit store shelves, told MMAjunkie. “That does matter. He’s going to be able to eat a few to deliver one on Silva.

“Silva is going to be landing those few, but if he gets clipped once, he’s far more susceptible. He’s almost 39 years old, (and) he’s now been knocked out pretty harshly.”

UFC 168 takes place Saturday at MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. The event, including the Weidman vs. Silva rematch, airs live on pay-per-view (10 p.m. ET), FOX Sports 1 (8 p.m. ET) and MMAjunkie (7 p.m. ET).

Kuhn, who analyzes fight data to forecast MMA trends and make predictions, said there is one statistical advantage that Silva (33-5 MMA, 16-1 UFC) does retain after Weidman (10-0 MMA, 6-0 UFC) knocked him out him at UFC 162. It’s a pretty big one.

“Anderson Silva, strike for strike, is the most dangerous striker in UFC history,” he said. “I’ve done that calculation, and he’s right there at the top. When he chooses to throw a strike at someone, he has the greatest probability of knocking that person down of anyone in history.

“If he plays the right game and doesn’t drop his hands, he can still move and counter, which he’s excellent at.

“Weidman’s coming in fresh, and he’s got the wrestling aspect. He’s going to be the stronger guy. Last time, I said Silva was more likely to win, but the value in the betting line was on Weidman, so that’s the way I went. With a much tighter line, I still agree with that assessment.”

Odds aren’t nearly as tight in UFC 168's co-main event, which features a grudge match between women’s bantamweight champ Ronda Rousey and former Strikeforce titleholder Miesha Tate.

Much has been made of Tate’s time to prepare for the rematch, as well as Rousey’s frenzied schedule in the buildup to it.

But Kuhn said a closer look at each fighter’s performance leads to the same result as in their first bout, when Rousey armbarred Tate inside a round.

A smarter bet, he said, is betting on certain types of outcomes rather than putting money into the lopsided odds favoring the champ.

“This is a crazy betting line,” Kuhn said. “When you’re looking for upset potential, you’ve got to find something they can win with. This is the women’s bantamweight division – one-punch knockouts don’t happen. You’re not going to see that in that fight.

“Miesha Tate, I like her. I’ve sat next to her over whole events. She asks intelligent questions. But I look at her striking stats, and they’re actually a little below average, and her defense is a hole. So that could be a problem.

“I wouldn’t lay juice on [Rousey to win], but if you’re looking for a prop on a finish – first round, or inside the distance or a submission play, that’s probably safer. Eventually, Rousey is going to decide this goes on the mat, and she’s excellent at that.”